Oklahoma vs. TCU college football preview, prediction

What to watch as Oklahoma takes on TCU on the Week 5 college football schedule

James Parks | Oct 1, 2022

Oklahoma vs. TCU college football preview, prediction /

Oklahoma vs. TCU college football preview, prediction

Oklahoma Sooners college football team schedule, rankings — Week 5 college football schedule: Oklahoma vs. TCU

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 1

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern

TV: ABC network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Oklahoma -6.5

O/U: 68.5

Moneyline: OU -300, TCU +200

FPI pick: Oklahoma 65.5%

Oklahoma vs. TCU: What you need to know

1. TCU doesn't make mistakes. So far under 1st year coach Sonny Dykes, the Horned Frogs aren't beating themselves. The team averages 510 yards of offense per game, third in the Big 12, and quarterback Max Duggan 9th nationally with a 96.7 QBR, 1st in pass efficiency, and is good for 77% of his attempts while not throwing an interception. Watch his connection with Derius Davis, who in addition to being a qualified perimeter threat, is a talented specialist: 1st in the Big 12 in punt and kickoff return yards.

2. Oklahoma can still move. The Sooners gave up 87 penalty yards, didn't have a sack, struggled against the run, couldn't stop Adrian Martinez, and Dillon Gabriel missed on some easy throws last week in a loss to Kansas State - and still only lost by a touchdown. The offense is in good hands with Gabriel, who's playing turnover-free football while hitting 67% of his passes for 11 scores and 126 and 2 TDs on the ground. OU is good for almost 6 ypc and has the perimeter targets to get itself out of any trouble the defense might get it into.

3. TCU can get beat in the air. The one apparent weakness that sticks out so far is how well the Horned Frogs defend against the pass, ranking last in the Big 12 and 107th nationally allowing 272.3 passing yards per game. But that's in tandem with college football's 5th best per-play pass defense, surrendering just 7.05 ypa. TCU will allow you to chip away, but is relatively strong in the red zone. Watch how TCU's gifted linebacker unit helps limit OU's attempt to build up drives with a lot of medium gainers.

Oklahoma vs. TCU: Fast Facts

TCU Horned Frogs college football team schedule, rankings

+ OU has scored 30-plus points in 37 of its last 38 true road games, the most nationally

+ The last time TCU started 3-0 was 2014 when it then beat No. 4 Oklahoma in the 4th game and went on to win the Big 12

+ Oklahoma is 77th nationally in 3rd down defense (.385) and allowed K-State to convert 10 of 19 last week

+ TCU quarterback Max Duggan is 1st nationally with a 216.0 pass efficiency rating and 3rd with 77% completion

+ OU is 10-1 against TCU since the Frogs joined the Big 12 and has run for at least 200 yards in 7 of the last 8

+ TCU has scored 139 points, its most through 3 games since 2017

+ Oklahoma is 130th out of 131 in FBS in time of possession (24:55)

+ TCU is scoring 17.6 points more per game and gains 74.2 more yards than it did last season

+ OU is 7th nationally in total offense with 513 yards per game

+ TCU has not trailed in a game since the 2nd qtr of its season opener

+ Oklahoma is 2nd with 36 TFLs and 9.0 TFLs per game and 11th with 13 total sacks

+ Horned Frogs are 2-8 against Oklahoma at home

+ OU has given up just 2 plays of 30 or more yards

+ TCU is the 8th most improved offense in the nation from last year

+ Brent Venables teams have won at least 10 games in 22 of the last 26 games

Oklahoma vs. TCU Prediction

TCU plays a balanced style of offense, with a lot to show for it in both phases: Duggan leads the nation's 9th most productive offense, is one of the sports' 10 most efficient passers, and the Frogs are racking up 215 yards on the ground per game.

So, another good test for Venables' new-look front seven, which struggled against Kansas State's rushing attack last week.

Duggan's mobility could also lend a hand: the quarterback has 3 career games with 100-plus rushing yards and resembles Adrian Martinez in his ability to skirt around tacklers for respectable gains.

But the Sooners still have the advantage at the skill positions and should be able to squeeze yards out of TCU's back seven pursuit group to earn the early momentum and the power to convert needed third downs late in the game.

College Football HQ Prediction: Oklahoma 37, TCU 31

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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Published Oct 1, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.