Penn State vs. Auburn football preview, prediction

Preview, predictions for Penn State vs. Auburn on the Week 3 college football schedule

James Parks | Sep 17, 2022

Penn State vs. Auburn football preview, prediction /

Penn State comes down south in a rematch of last season's victory over Auburn in a Big Ten-SEC matchup for college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

This was a close, 8-point win for the Nittany Lions a year ago up in Happy Valley, but both teams piled on enough losses the rest of the way to not make the result seem too meaningful.

This time around, there's plenty on the line for both clubs: for Penn State and the Big Ten, a chance to pick up a road W against an SEC team and build momentum going into conference play; and for Auburn, a crucial statement for Bryan Harsin's already-embattled tenure on the Plains.

Here's what you need to know about this week's matchup.

Penn State vs. Auburn football preview, prediction

Auburn Tigers college football team schedule, rankings

How to watch

When: Sat., Sept. 17

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: CBS network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Line: Penn State -3

O/U: 47.5

Moneyline: PSU -161 AUB +125

FPI pick: Penn State 61.7%

What you need to know

Penn State: This offense looks very balanced coming into Auburn as 6th year quarterback Sean Clifford is coming off a 213-yard day with a passing and rushing TD against Ohio, and Nick Singleton went off for 179 yards off 10 touches and a 44 yard score. Freshman quarterback Drew Allar hit 6 for 8 passes in relief, and new transfer receiver Mitchell Tinsley looks the part after starring in WKU's record-breaking offense a year ago. Add in a PSU defense that's allowed under 50% completions, and you have the recipe for a team that can challenge Ohio State later this year.

Auburn: Not much to write home about at quarterback so far as T.J. Finley has 1 TD and 3 picks on the year while Robby Ashford is 5 for 10 passing. Auburn can move moderately well on the ground with almost 500 total yards, a 6.3 ypc average, and 8 scores. But watch how the Tigers play against the run: the unit held PSU to under 3 ypc last year and brings back the core of that experience near the line.

Auburn vs. Penn State: Fast Facts

+ Penn State had 17 receivers catch a pass last week, a school record

+ Auburn ran for 210 yards and scored 3 TDs vs. San Jose State last week

+ PSU is 17th nationally since 2016 in 15-plus yard pass play percentage (19.57 percent)

+ Ja'Varrius Johnson is Auburn's leading WR with 7 rec for 158 yards

+ Nick Singleton leads Penn State with 210 rush yards and 2 scores with a 10.5 ypc average and a long run of 70 yards

+ Cam Riley leads Auburn with 20 tackles and Marcus Harris with 3 TFL

+ Mitchell Tinsley leads PSU with 111 yards off 10 catches for 2 TDs

+ Tank Bigsby leads Auburn with 198 rushing yards and 3 scores

+ Neither Auburn or Penn State have an interception on defense this season

+ Auburn has won 17 straight non-conference home games since 2016

+ Auburn is 8-2 under Bryan Harsin when scoring 20-plus points and 0-4 when scoring fewer

What happens?

Penn State's secondary held up enough against Purdue's excellent passing game to expect the unit to fare well against Auburn's downfield attack, which is yet to generate a consistent deep option.

While on the other side, Sean Clifford will probably have to win this game with his arm as Auburn poses enough of a legitimate threat in close range near the line to adequately suppress PSU's attempt to establish tempo on the ground early.

Bigsby and Auburn's backs should generate enough power to get around Penn State's line formation and create space to punch through some important third downs and keep this close most of the day.

But the Big Ten visitors might have the edge when it comes to establishing the perimeter game downfield and Clifford has already shown he can win a game on short drives under pressure on the road.

College Football HQ Prediction: Penn State 26, Auburn 21

College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

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Published Sep 17, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.