Minnesota vs. Penn State odds, spread, lines: Week 8 college football picks, predictions by computer model
Big Ten rivals square off in a cross-division matchup as Minnesota and Penn State both look to recover from costly losses in college football's Week 8 action on Saturday.
For the Gophers, it's a chance to avoid what would be a third straight loss after dropping impactful games to Purdue and Illinois, the two teams currently in the lead for the Big Ten West division chase this Minnesota team once contended for.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions hope to get back in the win column after an ugly loss at Michigan in which its rushing defense, considered a strength on the roster, was repeatedly beaten for long gainers on the ground.
That performance puts Penn State down in the East Division title race after losing the critical head-to-head matchup with UM and a date with Ohio State still to come later.
What do the experts think of this week's matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Minnesota vs. Penn State picks, predictions
Week 8 college football picks: Penn State vs. Minnesota
The computers are siding with the home team this week, as Penn State has the 62.5 percent chance to defeat Minnesota on Saturday.
That leaves the Gophers an outside 37.5 percent shot to take down the Nittany Lions and move to .500 in Big Ten games.
The oddsmakers also favor the home team, as Penn State comes in the narrow 4.5 point favorites to beat Minnesota, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under at 44.5 points for the matchup.
Penn State and Minnesota are neck and neck in the index's 131 college football rankings coming into the Week 8 schedule.
Not a traditional power ranking, the FPI slots teams by a projected per-game scoring margin against an average team on a neutral field.
In that category, Penn State is an estimated 12.8 points better in that situation, good for No. 14 nationally, compared to Minnesota, which comes in at No. 17 with a projected plus-11.9 point margin, according to the computers.
The index estimates that Penn State will win 8.8 games this season with a 1.5 percent chance to win the Big Ten East Division, behind Ohio State and Michigan.
Minnesota is projected to win 8.3 games on the year with an outside 5.4 percent shot to win the West Division away from contenders Illinois and Purdue.
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- TCU
- UCLA
- Oregon
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Wake Forest
- Syracuse
- Utah
- Penn State
- Kansas State
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Texas
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Tulane