Penn State vs. Purdue football prediction, preview

Your look at the Penn State vs. Purdue game on Week 1 of the college football schedule

James Parks | Aug 31, 2022

Penn State vs. Purdue football prediction, preview /

A pair of Big Ten rivals open up the 2022 college football season in a conference matchup as Penn State heads out to Purdue on Saturday.

A pair of veteran quarterbacks lead both teams, with Sean Clifford back for Penn State and Aidan O'Connell starting again for Purdue, setting up what could be an exciting, more wide open game to kick things off.

Here's what you need to know about the Big Ten opener this weekend.

Penn State vs. Purdue football preview, prediction

Penn State head coach James Franklin during a Big Ten college football game. — Penn State and Purdue kick off the 2022 college football season / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Thurs., Sept. 1

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox network

Stream: Fubo (Click here)

Purdue vs. Penn State odds, picks

Line: Penn State -3.5

O/U: 54.5

Moneyline: PSU -170, PUR +143

FPI pick: Penn State 60.2%

Penn State vs. Purdue: What to watch

1. Purdue's experience at QB. Aidan O'Connell returns as one of the Big Ten's most productive and efficient quarterbacks. He was a 72% passer while averaging 310 yards per game and had 28 TDs a year ago, the Big Ten's second-most, and boasts a deep field accuracy and veteran decisiveness that should keep a PSU defense that loses 6 starters second guessing.

2. But he loses two key targets. Every quarterback needs good receivers, and O'Connell just lost two: David Bell to the NFL, and Bell's presumptive heir, Milton Wright, who was ruled academically ineligible. In all, Purdue lost 56% of its receiving yardage and 51% of its receiving TDs from last season. However, 43% of the Boilers' TD catches come back: watch for Payne Durham, TJ Sheffield, and Broc Thompson to get involved early.

3. Penn State's new weapon. Sean Clifford led the Big Ten's fourth-best passing attack but this year inherits a major pickup in transfer receiver Mitchell Tinsley. A smooth route runner with reliable hands, Tinsley was Bailey Zappe's primary target in WKU's record-breaking offense last season, catching 87 passes for 1,402 yards and 14 TDs. He went over 100 yards in four games, including a 127 yard showing against Michigan State.

Purdue vs. Penn State: Fast Facts

+ Penn State has won 17 of its last 20 season openers and 5 of its last 6

+ Aidan O'Connell threw 19 of his 28 TDs in the final 5 games of 2021

+ PSU ranked 3rd nationally in red zone defense last season, (66.7% conversion) holding opponents to a 37.5% TD conversion rate, also 3rd best

+ Purdue has won 22 of its last 24 home openers

+ Penn State allowed 17.3 points per game last fall, the 6th best nationally

+ Purdue brings back 17 starters including 76.4% of its total offense

+ Penn State surrendered 11 passing TDs, the 4th best mark in the nation

+ Purdue ranked 5th nationally in passing offense and 2nd in completion percentage

+ Penn State is 28-5 in games where it rushes for 200-plus yards under James Franklin

+ Purdue is the only team in history to beat two top-5 ranked teams in a season while itself being unranked (in 2021)

+ Mike Yurcich (Penn State OC) offenses have scored 40-plus points in 52 games (45.2% of games coached), the most in FBS since 2013

+ O'Connell is one of just three FBS quarterbacks who had over 3,500 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and a 70% completion mark

+ Sean Clifford is one of 6 FBS quarterbacks with at least 7,800 passing yards and 60 passing TDs

What happens?

On a pure talent basis, Penn State should hold the clear advantage, and should play well enough defense to keep it close all day.

But the Boilermakers want to get aggressive moving the ball in the air behind O'Connell's big arm and control the rhythm of the game from the outset.

To counter, Penn State will copy that formula and try to establish the Clifford/Tinsley connection early by opening holes against a quality Purdue secondary that can make some plays of its own.

But the Nittany Lions should field a more improved pass rush that can better disrupt O'Connell's timing down the stretch, especially as he won't have his main two targets to lean on this time.

College Football HQ prediction: Penn State 31, Purdue 24

College football rankings

According to AP Top 25 poll

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Published Aug 31, 2022

JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.