Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia football preview, prediction

A look at the Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia matchup in Week 1 of the college football schedule

Author:
James Parks
Publish date:
Aug 29, 2022 4:32 PM EDT

Week 1 of the college football schedule is here as Pittsburgh and West Virginia kick off their rivalry in the season opener.

Both teams will debut first-time transfer quarterbacks, as Kedon Slovis lines up for defending ACC champion Pitt and JT Daniels for the Mountaineers.

Here's what you need to know about the Week 1 Backyard Brawl matchup.

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia football preview, prediction

Pitt and WVU resume the Backyard Brawl to open the 2022 college football season

How to watch

When: Thurs., Sept. 1

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern

TV: ESPN network

Stream: fuboTV

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia odds

Line: Pittsburgh -7

O/U: 51

Moneyline: PITT -278, WVU +222

FPI pick: Pittsburgh, 78.1%

West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh: What to watch

JT Daniels lines up for West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl

1. How Pitt rebounds from its losses. Losing Kenny Pickett (to the NFL) and Jordan Addison (to USC) after the ACC title run hurts badly, make no mistake. Addison led college football with 17 TD catches in '21. Pitt gained one former Trojan, though, in Kedon Slovis, a 68.4% career passer with 58 touchdowns to his credit. He inherits eight returning offensive starters, including Israel Abanikanda, who led Pitt with 7 rushing TDs and 651 ground yards a year ago despite starting just six games.

2. Finally, a look at JT Daniels. Once a 5-star recruit, Daniels bounced around from USC to Georgia, but never getting a chance at keeping the starting job for long because of injury (or Stetson Bennett). Now, at last a more detailed look at the No. 2 ranked QB prospect from 2018 hailed as one of the best technicians at the position coming out of high school, now armed with some solid perimeter speed to work with downfield and OC Graham Harrell, who wants to get aggressive.

3. Pitt on defense. Most of the attention is on losing the Pickett/Addison combo, but don't forget the Panthers were a very solid defensive team a year ago, first in the ACC against the rush, No. 2 nationally in sacks, and fifth in TFLs. And with a powerful front seven unit going against a WVU line that struggled blocking for the run and was last in the Big 12 in sacks and TFLs allowed.

Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia: Fast Facts

+ West Virginia is 94-14 since 2022 when winning the turnover battle

+ Pitt is 20-7 under Pat Narduzzi when it has one 100 yard rusher in a game and has hit that mark 30 times

+ West Virginia is 205-22-1 when scoring 30-plus points since 1990 and 65-6 when hitting 40 points since 2000

+ Pitt was fourth nationally with five defensive TDs last fall and is 11-5 when doing so under Narduzzi

+ WVU averages 35 ppg in season openers since 2012

+ Pitt was 15th nationally and 2nd in the ACC in third down defense (33.5%)

+ West Virginia is 34-15 when passing for 300 yards in a game since 2012 and have surpassed that number eight games under Neal Brown

+ Pittsburgh was second nationally with 3.86 sacks per game

+ West Virginia returns 47% of its receiving TDs and 46% of its receiving yardage production from last season

+ Pitt is 22-1 under Narduzzi in games where it has at least 5 sacks and was 5-0 last season

+ The Mountaineers were 18th nationally in red zone offense last year

+ Pittsburgh is 15-2 in games under Narduzzi when it holds opponents to under 250 total yards

+ WVU is 13-0 under Brown when rushing for 100 yards in a game

+ Pitt was 6th nationally defending the run and is coming off a 2021 in which it held opposition to 89.3 rushing yards per game

+ West Virginia returns 56% of its TFL production and three of its top four sack leaders

+ Pittsburgh is 28-8 in games where it holds opponents to under 100 rushing yards

What happens?

Watch how well Pitt is able to establish the run early on with Abanikanda, especially on short and medium gains and on third down.

Do that, against an inexperienced Mountaineer front group, and Pitt can control the tempo most of the day, setting up a credible threat with Slovis working the play action, and keep the offense on schedule.

Slovis working against West Virginia's fresh secondary, an advantage on the front seven defensively, its overall returning experience, and its ability to run the ball better all tilt the scales in Pitt's favor.

But not without a little offensive fireworks as Slovis and Daniels tease the other side's back seven with a few highlight plays of their own first to make it close early.

College Football HQ prediction: Pittsburgh 35, West Virginia 24

College football rankings

According to AP Top 25 poll

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