TCU vs. Oklahoma State preview, prediction: Week 7 college football picks
A pair of undefeated Big 12 rivals square off in a huge battle for conference supremacy as TCU hosts Oklahoma State in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.
Both come in ranked in the top 25 this week, TCU at No. 13 following a statement victory over an also-ranked Kansas on the road, while the Cowboys check in at No. 8 nationally after defeating Texas Tech last week.
Both are also 5-0 on the year overall and boast 2-0 marks in conference play, OSU over a then-ranked Baylor in a rematch of last season's Big 12 championship game, and TCU over two ranked foes in KU and Oklahoma.
When these teams last met, Oklahoma won easily, crushing the Horned Frogs in a 63-17 decision, the biggest margin of victory in the series. This one figures to be a lot closer when looking at these offenses.
Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.
TCU vs. Oklahoma State preview, prediction
Week 7 college football picks: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 15
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
More college football on SI: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule
Odds, point spread, betting lines
Odds courtesy SI Sportsbook
Line: TCU -4
TCU ATS: 4-0-1
OSU ATS: 3-2
Over/under: 68
Moneyline: OSU +145, TCU -200
FPI pick: TCU 57.6%
Related: TCU vs. Oklahoma State picks, predictions: Week 7 college football odds, spread, lines
TCU vs. OSU: What you need to know
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1. Elite QB face-off. A pair of quarterbacks meet on the same field with a chance to step into the Heisman Trophy race this week. Spencer Sanders has played well for the Cowboys, very well: ranking 10th nationally among quarterbacks in total offense with 327 yards per game on average. Max Duggan isn't far behind, in the top 20 with a shade under 302 yards per game and the TCU signal caller is No. 2 nationally in passer efficiency rating, leading college football's No. 3 total offense and the sport's best unit averaging 8.1 yards per play.
2. Cowboys in the air. After embracing a more run-centric approach a year ago, OSU is finding more balance this season, and leaning more on Sanders' improved accuracy. Braydon Johnson leads a gifted receiving corps, scoring four times and averaging almost 18 yards per catch. Four of these targets are over 200 yards on the year and now line up against a TCU coverage group that ranks 110th nationally, allowing 269 yards in the air and almost 14 for every pass.
3. Battle at the line. Oklahoma State's defense isn't quite the powerhouse it was under Jim Knowles' watch, but it's still a force to be reckoned with. So far it's still the best single pass rushing group in the Big 12, leading the conference with 3.2 sacks per game, is elite against the run in close range, and is tops nationally with 10.2 tackles for loss per game. TCU is protecting itself well, allowing just seven sacks this year total, only 1.4 per outing, and is top 25 nationally allowing just 4.2 tackles for loss per game.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU: Fast Facts
+ Cowboys are 4th nationally scoring 45.2 points per game
+ TCU is 3rd in scoring offense (46.4 ppg)
+ OSU is 9th nationally in the red zone (.958)
+ TCU is 1st nationally with 8.1 yards per play
+ Sanders is 4th in FBS with 22 points per game
+ TCU has scored at least 38 points in each game this year
+ OSU has won 6 of its last 7 road games
+ Duggan is 2nd nationally in passing efficiency (194.3)
+ Cowboys are 154-69 when their opponent score 20 to 30 points under Mike Gundy and 47-93 when scoring 30-plus
+ OSU is 117-13 under Gundy when leading at halftime and 29-52 when not
+ Cowboys have forced 34 turnovers in their last 23 games
+ Oklahoma State has held 24 of its last 26 conference opponents to under their scoring per game average
+ TCU receiver Quentin Johnson had 204 yards last week, a Big 12 high this season
TCU vs. Oklahoma State Prediction
The key to TCU's success on offense this season has been its ability to get the ball out fast and put its targets in space, where they're able to win speed battles against tacklers.
That approach won't work as well against Oklahoma State, which should be by far the best defense the Horned Frogs line up against this season.
OSU has the power and speed to consistently challenge TCU's pass protection on the edges and throw Duggan off rhythm in the pocket, while on the other end Sanders should find a few lanes downfield on the Frogs' up and down coverage unit.
College Football HQ Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, TCU 30
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison