TCU vs. Texas preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?

Preview and prediction for TCU vs. Texas on the Week 11 college football schedule

The two top teams in the Big 12 standings square off on the Forty Acres as Texas welcomes TCU in a battle of ranked Lone Star State rivals in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.

CFP No. 18 Texas has won four of its last five boasting a 6-3 overall record combined with a 4-2 mark in conference games and with a chance to knock off the team that just moved into the final four of the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

TCU moved into No. 4 in the CFP top 25 poll this week and is the last undefeated team in the Big 12, holding onto pole position in the league behind the nation's fourth-ranked total offense and scoring attack.

Here's what you need to know about Saturday's matchup.

TCU vs. Texas preview, prediction

Week 11 college football picks: TCU vs. Texas

How to watch

When: Sat., Nov. 12

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central

TV: ABC network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Odds, point spread, betting lines

Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Point spread: Texas comes into the game as the narrow 7 point favorites to defeat TCU, according to the lines at our SI Sportsbook.

Over/under: 64.5 points

Moneyline: Texas -300, TCU +200

FPI prediction: Texas has the comfortable 73.0 percent chance to win the game over the Horned Frogs, according to the Football Power Index computers, which simulate teams' seasons 20,000 times to predict winners using scores and schedules to date. TCU has the 27.0 percent shot to win, according to FPI.

Related: TCU vs. Texas picks, predictions: Week 11 college football odds, spread, lines

TCU vs. Texas: Keys to the game

1. Texas wants to run, and it can. Every defense sets their sights on stopping running back Bijan Robinson, but few have been able to up to now. Robinson is one of just two players in FBS with both 1,000 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards this season. Robinson is already at 1,129 yards on the ground with 12 touchdowns and is averaging a shade under 6 ypc, eclipsing 100 yards in his last seven straight games. TCU is a respectable fifth in the Big 12, allowing 146.6 rushing yards per game and stopping Robinson will be key to avoiding another slow first half start.

2. QB battle. TCU's Max Duggan is 4th in FBS in passing efficiency and hit over 65% of his passes in wins over four ranked opponents and has saved some of his most accurate performances for the Texas series, in which he's 2-1 all-time. Three of his receivers have 4 or more TD catches and four of them average over 15 yards per catch. Quinn Ewers has been getting slightly less efficient in each game, and is at just 50% completion against ranked teams, completing fewer than 20 passes in each of his last three. But he can still find the end zone, averaging 2.17 passing touchdowns per game this season. Xavier Worthy remains Ewers' top target, catching 9 of Texas' 20 TDs in the air.

3. Who wins a close game? Those slow first half starts for TCU have become a talking point among the analyst class and in the College Football Playoff selection committee room. So far, the Frogs have been able to come back by generating momentum with their gifted skill threats like receiver Quentin Johnston and lead back Kendre Miller. TCU is a perfect 3-0 in one-score games this year, while the Longhorns are 1-2 in the same situation. It's all on the line for TCU: this has to be the game where it makes a statement by building and sustaining a lead on the road against a ranked team.

Fast Facts

— TCU is the only team with 4 TDs of at least 62 yards against FBS opponents

— Texas is 101st nationally allowing 258.1 passing yards per game

— TCU is 1st nationally with 14 TDs of 50-plus yards

— Texas has scored on 90% of red zone chances (36 of 40), scoring TDs on 25 drives

— Frogs are 2nd nationally with 7.36 yards per play

— Texas averages 6 plays of 20-plus yards per game, with at least 4 in each

— TCU is 1 of 2 teams with 285 ypg passing, 200 ypg rushing, at least 20 passing TDs, and at least 20 rushing TDs

— Longhorns have 22 plays of 30-plus yards, with 10 going for touchdowns

— TCU is the 4th most improved team nationally, adding 14.4 points to its per game scoring output from last year to this

— Texas is 2-9 allowing 30-plus points under Steve Sarkisian

— TCU has scored at least 34 pts in its first 9 games for the first time ever

— Longhorns are 1-5 when they lose the turnover margin and 6-2 when they win it under Sarkisian

— TCU's Kendre Miller is 1st nationally rushing for a TD in 10 straight games

— Horned Frogs have allowed 3 TDs in the second half of its last 4 games

Who wins, and why?

All eyes are on TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Duggan's top target missed most of last week's game with an ankle injury and his absence reflected the team's offensive output: TCU had season-lows in points (34) and passing yards (195).

Not having Johnston on the field obviously hinders TCU's ability to dominate the passing game as much as it can with him out there, but Duggan still has the arm and the targets to set the pace against the Longhorns' vulnerable secondary.

Taye Barber (23 rec, 450 yds, 3 TD) and Derius Davis (28-385-5) are more than capable of creating space and tight end Jared Wiley is a solid threat in scoring position standing at 6-foot-7, scoring 4 touchdowns off 12 catches this season.

Those options, plus the Frogs' rushing capacity, could tilt the game in their favor. TCU is 13th nationally running the ball and is 5th with 25 rushing touchdowns behind Kendre Miller's 6.6 ypc average and 12 scores on the ground.

But the game could be won or lost at the line when TCU's pursuit group lines up against Bijan Robinson, a job that gets easier for the Horned Frogs' defense if it can contain Ewers' big arm and reduce the Longhorns attack to one dimension.

College Football HQ Prediction: TCU 37, Texas 30

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College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU
5. Tennessee
6. Oregon
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Alabama
10. Clemson
11. Ole Miss
12. UCLA
13. Utah
14. Penn State
15. North Carolina
16. NC State
17. Tulane
18. Texas
19. Kansas State
20. Notre Dame
21. Illinois
22. UCF
23. Florida State
24. Kentucky
25. Washington

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