Texas A&M vs. Miami football preview, prediction
Texas A&M hosts Miami in a battle of ranked, non-conference teams both looking to avoid a costly early season loss in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.
All of a sudden, Texas A&M is in a must-win situation. Coming in as a College Football Playoff hopeful off a historic recruiting effort, the Aggies are 1-1 and coming off a home loss to unranked Appalachian State.
Miami is still perfect through 2 games, but played an unranked Southern Miss a little too close at home last weekend.
Here's what you need to know about this Saturday's game.
Texas A&M vs. Miami football preview, prediction
Week 3 college football schedule: Texas A&M vs. Miami
How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 17
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Game odds, point spreads, betting lines
Line: Texas A&M -6
O/U: 44.5
Moneyline: MIA +175 A&M -210
FPI pick: Miami 53.8%
What you need to know
1. A&M has to get aggressive. The numbers from last week are jarring: Haynes King threw for 97 yards for no scores and went under 5 ypa for a QB rating of 21.3. The Ags ran for 83 yards and a score, and no receiver got to 50 yards on the day. In total, A&M had 186 yards, was 2 of 8 on third down, and held the ball for 18 minutes. King has a good enough arm to dish to Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith on the perimeter, and the Canes' corners can be beat. Devon Achane is under 4 ypc in 2 games. Jimbo Fisher is paid the big money to fix this.
2. Miami will test Aggies' secondary. So far, the early returns on Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke are as advertised. Working in new OC Josh Gattis' system, Van Dyke has hit on 73% of his passes, connected with 12 receivers, and heads an offense that averages 9.0 yards per play, can spread things out, and works well in space. Miami runs well, too: Henry Parrish and Thaddius Franklin have 7 TDs between them and the backfield is good for 5.3 ypc.
3. And the Aggies will test Miami's. The Hurricanes' back seven is untested so far in 2 games and had its weaknesses a year ago. And it hasn't faced anything like Ainias Smith or Evan Stewart yet. Combined with A&M's solid pass protection, this offense should be able to consistently tap the deep portion of the field. That is, if King can deliver the ball there. Or is this the moment when Jimbo makes the switch to Max Johnson, who had 27 TDs and 6 INTs with LSU a year ago?
Texas A&M vs. Miami: Fast Facts
+ Miami is 5-6 against top 25 teams since 2018
+ A&M is 4-3 against top 25 teams at home under Jimbo Fisher but 3-0 in its last 3
+ Aggies are 20-3 at home under Fisher as a favorite
+ Van Dyke has throws multiple TDs in 7 of its last 8 games
+ A&M is 3rd in SEC allowing 8.5 ppg and 1st allowing 112.5 pass yards per game
+ Miami's Henry Parrish ran for 100 yards in back-to-back games
+ Texas A&M is 22-5 (.815) at home under Fisher and is 28-2 against non-conference teams since joining the SEC
+ Josh Gattis' offense averaged 35.8 ppg a year ago and was one of 20 to average 35-plus points per game
+ Aggies' Devon Achane led the SEC and was 2nd nationally with 7.0 ypc in 2021
+ Miami's Jaylan Knighton has 1,303 all-purpose yards in 17 total games for an average of 76.6 ypg
+ A&M is 27-4 when scoring first under Fisher and 25-0 when leading after the 1st quarter
What happens?
Miami needs to strike quickly and with balance, testing the Aggies' strong front seven with its productive ground attack and with Van Dyke putting the ball deep early to get A&M's defensive backs out of position.
Meanwhile, the Aggies need to control the tempo and establish the run behind Devon Achane. Miami is 8th nationally allowing 58.5 yards per game on the ground, but hasn't faced a back of Achane's quality yet.
There are too many good pieces offensively to not make this unit churn out consistent yards: the receivers, the backs, and the line are there; the problem appears to be at quarterback. This could be when we see the change.
College Football HQ Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Miami 27
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Kentucky
- Arkansas
- Michigan State
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Tennessee
- NC State
- Baylor
- Florida
- Wake Forest
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Penn State
- Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M
- Oregon