Texas vs. Kansas score prediction by college football computer model

What to expect for Texas vs. Kansas as the college football season turns to Week 12

Last season, Kansas knocked off Texas on the road in a surprise upset, and this year the Longhorns hope to return the favor in college football's Week 12 action on Saturday.

Texas has lost two of its last three, to ranked Oklahoma State and TCU, and beat Kansas State on the road, with a slim chance at making the Big 12 title game.

Mathematically, the Longhorns are still in this thing, but have to win their final two games and hope for some help from around the league.

That historic start by Kansas, a 5-0 debut and a spot in the top 25 rankings, evaporated midseason after losing four of the last five overall and falling to 3-4 in conference play.

What can we expect from this week's matchup?

SP+ Picks, a prediction model created by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly, forecasts that the game will follow the bookmakers' projections.

Texas vs. Kansas pick, prediction

Week 12 college football picks: Texas vs. Kansas

Texas vs. Kansas score prediction: The computer model projects that Texas will defeat Kansas, 36-26, with a 72 percent chance to win the game outright.

Point spread: The lines at SI Sportsbook list Texas as 9.5 point favorites to beat the Jayhawks, and set the over/under mark at 63.5 points for the matchup.

FPI prediction: The Longhorns have the comfortable 77.0 percent chance to win Saturday's game, according to the Football Power Index computers that predict winners by simulating teams' seasons 20,000 times using past scores and schedules.

College Football HQ prediction: Our projections indicate that Texas will defeat Kansas by 7 points, fail to cover the spread, and hit the under. Kansas +9.5

How to watch: The game is set for Sat., Nov. 19 at 2:30 p.m. Central time on the FS1 network and streams on fuboTV (Try for free).

Where Texas is right now: The returns on quarterback Quinn Ewers are decidedly mixed so far. The freshman has four TD passes and four interceptions the last three games and Texas is 0-2 in games he hits under 50% of his passes. The offense slid into neutral last week against TCU, but the Horns' defense played an inspired game, even scoring a touchdown to make it close late. That, combined with Bijan Robinson finding room on the ground, could keep Texas in the conference title hunt.

Where Kansas is right now: KU may have left the prominent position it had earlier this season when it started 5-0, and since a 7-point loss to TCU at home, the team has dropped four of five, but has a solid win over a ranked Oklahoma State. The loss to Texas Tech was tough, but a win over the Longhorns can nudge the Jayhawks up the Big 12 standings after they already secured bowl eligibility.

More from College Football HQ

College football pick'em: College football Week 12 picks, predictions by computer model

Place your bets: Week 12 college football picks against the spread

Big 12 showdown: Texas vs. Kansas picks, predictions: Week 12 college football odds, spread, lines

Behind the ballot: AP top 25 college football rankings for Week 12

Top 25: ESPN updates the Week 12 football rankings

Let's go bowling: College football bowl predictions for Playoff, New Year's games

(SP+)

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Facebook