USC vs. Arizona odds, spread, lines: Week 9 college football picks, predictions by computer model
A pair of Pac-12 rivals square off in the desert this weekend as Arizona welcomes USC in college football's Week 9 action on Saturday.
Arizona has dropped three of its last five and comes in at 3-4 overall with a 1-3 mark in Pac-12 competition behind the nation's 93rd rushing offense.
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USC is back on the gridiron after the idle week, but coming off its first loss in the Lincoln Riley era, a 1-point decision at Utah two Saturdays ago that complicated the Trojans' designs on making the Pac-12 title game.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
USC vs. Arizona picks, predictions
Week 9 college football picks: USC vs. Arizona
The computer is siding comfortably with the visiting team, as USC has the outsized 88.7 percent chance to defeat Arizona this weekend.
That leaves the Wildcats an 11.3 percent shot to hand the Trojans their second loss of the season and move to .500 in the record books themselves.
The oddsmakers are going with the road team, as USC comes in the 15 point favorites to defeat Arizona, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the over/under mark at 75.5 points for the matchup.
USC sits at No. 10 overall on the index's 131 college football rankings, projected to win 10.5 games this season and be 15.9 points better than an average team on a neutral field, according to the computers.
That adds up to a 32.7 percent shot to win the Pac-12, the best mark in the conference, and a 9.9 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Arizona checks in at No. 83 nationally on the FPI rankings, second to last in the Pac-12, and estimated to be 4.0 points worse than an average team, while expected to win 4.2 games this season, according to the metrics.
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia (31 1st-place votes)
2. Ohio State (18)
3. Tennessee (13)
4. Michigan
5. Clemson (1)
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma State
10. USC
T-10. Wake Forest
12. UCLA
13. Penn State
14. Utah
15. Ole Miss
16. Syracuse
17. Illinois
18. LSU
19. Kentucky
20. Cincinnati
21. North Carolina
22. Kansas State
23. Tulane
24. NC State
25. South Carolina