Wake Forest vs. Florida State college football preview, prediction

What to watch as Wake Forest and Florida State meet on the Week 5 college football schedule

Wake Forest vs. Florida State football preview, prediction

Week 5 college football schedule: Wake Forest vs. Florida State / USA Today Images

How to watch

When: Sat., Oct. 1

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: ABC network

Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

Related: College football scores | College football rankings | College football schedule

Odds, point spreads, betting lines

Line: Florida State -7

O/U: 65

Moneyline: WF +200 FSU -300

FPI pick: Florida State 73.4%

Related: Wake Forest vs. Florida State odds, spread, lines: Week 5 college football picks, predictions

Wake Forest vs. Florida State: What you need to know

1. Seminoles secondary on notice. Take a look at what Sam Hartman did to Clemson last week. Wake's quarterback passed for over 300 yards (for the third straight game), including a battery of accurate deep throws, and a school record 6 touchdown passes in the win. Florida State is a respectable 16th nationally in air defense, better than Georgia and Ohio State, allowing under 166 ypg and fewer than 6 ypa, but hasn't faced a quarterback of Hartman's ability or his receivers' consistency.

2. So is Wake's. Clemson's offense was very much an open question until it went up against the Deacons' back seven, which allowed DJ Uiagalelei to pass for more than 370 yards and 5 scores on their home turf. Wake is 79th nationally allowing more than 237 passing yards per game and almost 12 ypa and now lines up against a Seminole attack that is 1st in the ACC in total offense, rushing offense, and pass yards per completion. That last mark is 7th nationally while the other two are top 15. Plus, it's working from behind a line allowing 1.25 sacks per game, 2nd fewest in the ACC.

3. Florida State will run. Jordan Travis is a gifted quarterback and is coming off a 300-plus yard performance against BC, but the key to a Seminole victory here is to balance things out. Travis likely won't be able to go bomb for bomb with Hartman, so it's a good thing Florida State is one of college football's premier running teams. It ranks 13th nationally with 227 rushing yards per game, is over 5.5 ypc, and has 12 scores, the 5th most. Wake is 76th against the run and vulnerable in the red zone, placing last nationally and is one of 11 teams still allowing 100% scoring inside the 20.

Florida State vs. Wake Forest: Fast Facts

+ Wake has scored 40-plus points in 19 of its last 40 games

+ Florida State is 3rd in ACC in 3rd down conversion pct allowed

+ Wake has forced a turnover in 33 of its last 35 games

+ Seminoles are No. 1 in the ACC in pass defense (165.8 ypg)

+ Hartman is 1st nationally with 26 pts responsible for per game

+ Florida State is 30-8-1 all-time against Wake

+ Hartman is 8th nationally with 331.7 yards per game

+ Florida State has scored on 7 of its first 8 drives of a half this season, with 6 TDs on those 7 drives

+ Wake is 40-11 under Clawson when leading at halftime and 9-33 when trailing

+ Mike Norvell teams score 37.7 points per game, 3rd most since 2016

+ Wake is 33-7 under Clawson allowing 21 or fewer points and 8-12 when allowing more than 21

+ Travis is FSU's career leader among QBs with 1,365 rushing yards

+ Wake is 43-8 when leading after 3 quarters under Clawson and 9-38 when not

Wake Forest vs. Florida State Prediction

Florida State is the best rushing team in the ACC, which helps maintain possession, keep the ball away from Sam Hartman, control tempo, move the chains, and convert critical third downs as the game wears on.

Travis will be able to pass the Seminoles into the red zone with some regularity while the 'Noles backs can finish those drives on the ground against a Wake interior that can be pushed around near the goal line.

But not before Hartman peppers Florida State's back seven with some long gainers that will keep Wake in the game all day.

College Football HQ Prediction: Florida State 37, Wake Forest 35

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College football rankings

According to AP top 25 poll

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. USC
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Oklahoma State
10. NC State
11. Penn State
12. Utah
13. Oregon
14. Ole Miss
15. Washington
16. Baylor
17. Texas A&M
18. Oklahoma
19. BYU
20. Arkansas
21. Minnesota
22. Wake Forest
23. Florida State
24. Pittsburgh
25. Kansas State

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