Big 12 football tiebreaker scenarios in to watch Week 14 games

What you need to know as the Big 12 tries to sort out a very crowded football championship picture in the conference heading into the 2024 regular season finale.

What needs to be sorted out in the Big 12 conference standings in the 2024 college football regular season finale. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

It’s total madness at the top of the Big 12 football standings with just one week left to sort it all out and decide who will play for the conference championship.

And thus, who will ensure a spot in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.

Coming into the regular season finale, it’s a four-way tie atop the Big 12 standings, with Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State all in that crowded stalemate with two losses each.

And those four aren’t even all the teams that are technically in the conversation to make Arlington. 

A total of nine teams are still mathematically in contention, as five other schools are 5-3 in conference play and haven’t been ruled out yet should there be any other unforeseen outcomes across the Big 12 during the Week 14 games.

The easiest outcome in the conference? If two of the top-four teams lose and the other two win, advancing those late winners to the Big 12 Championship Game.

But looking at the games ahead, it’s very likely we see a three- or four-way draw atop the conference to end the season. 

Where does that leave the Big 12 in sorting it all out?

Two-team tie scenario: The two teams remaining that are tied at 7-2 in conference play will advance to the Big 12 Championship Game.

Four-team tie scenario: Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

Now, for the three-team tie scenarios...

If Colorado loses: Should the Buffaloes lose to Oklahoma State this week, then Arizona State will play Iowa State in the conference title game.

If Arizona State loses: If the Sun Devils lose to rival Arizona, then Iowa State will play BYU.

If Iowa State loses: In the event the Cyclones lose to Kansas State, we’ll see Arizona State play BYU in Arlington.

If BYU loses, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas, and Cincinnati beats TCU: Then, the Big 12 title will be between Colorado vs. Iowa State.

If BYU loses, Texas Tech wins, Baylor loses, or Cincinnati loses: Colorado vs. Arizona State for the Big 12 crown.

If BYU loses and West Virginia wins: Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

6-3 tiebreaker scenario: Teams entering this week at 5-3 in conference play must not only win their games, but need three of the four 6-2 teams to lose their games.

Thanks to the Big 12 Championship Game being a play-in for the College Football Playoff, there’s plenty more attention on the outcome than even in years past.

That makes what happens in the Big 12 of national importance entering Rivalry Week.

Relevant Big 12 games to watch in Week 14

All times Eastern

Oklahoma State at Colorado
Fri., Nov. 29 | 12 p.m. | ABC

Kansas at Baylor
Sat., Nov. 30 | 12 p.m. | ESPN2

West Virginia at Texas Tech
Sat., Nov. 30 | 12 p.m. | FS1

Arizona State at Arizona
Sat., Nov. 30 | 3:30 p.m. | Fox

TCU at Cincinnati
Sat., Nov. 30 | 6 p.m. | ESPN+

Kansas State at Iowa State
Sat., Nov. 30 | 7:30 p.m. | Fox

Houston at BYU
Sat., Nov. 30 | 10:15 p.m. | ESPN

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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