Clemson, Florida State will leave ACC in realignment move eventually, analyst predicts

After taking the ACC to court to challenge its huge exit fees, one college football analyst suggests Clemson and Florida State will end up causing the next realignment push.

Clemson and Florida State head coaches Dabo Swinney and Mike Norvell on the sideline before a college football game in the ACC. / Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson and Florida State are already facing the ACC in court over the conference's enormous exit fees, a move that many insiders predict will find those schools leaving the league in what would be the next major phase of college football realignment.

"They're gonna leave," college football reporter Brett McMurphy said on The Paul Finebaum Show.

"It's not if. It's when. I was at ACC Spring Meetings a couple of weeks ago, and... basically sources with the ACC told me no surprise, the ACC's going to fight this to the bitter end. Obviously at some point they're going to have to settle, but the ACC is going to delay that settlement as long as they can."

And whenever that settlement comes down, it could open up a path for other ACC schools to move.

"As soon as they do reach a settlement, and there is a number established for Florida State and Clemson to exit, then that opens the door for other schools to leave," McMurphy added.

"The North Carolina schools, the Virginia schools. Certainly the SEC would have interest. I don't think they have interest in Florida State or Clemson because they've already got Florida and South Carolina."

There was some talk recently around North Carolina entertaining an exit after a school trustee said he was interested in leaving the ACC, but that speculation cooled down after it appeared that was not a consensus view held by other decision makers at UNC.

If the ACC's worst case scenario does come true, and if the SEC didn't express interest in adding Clemson or Florida State, the Big Ten would be the other most likely destination.

By adding four former Pac-12 schools, the conference has shown it doesn't consider itself to be a geographic player, but a national one, and extending into the Southeast, with its media presence and recruiting advantages, would follow that logic.

McMurphy singled out the SEC, however, as a possible landing spot for North Carolina, should that school ever elect to leave the ACC.

Last offseason, Clemson and Florida State were revealed to be two of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" schools that were scouting a possible exit from the ACC's grant of rights agreement that expires in 2036. North Carolina was a third.

To leave the conference before that date, a school would have to fork over an exit fee of nine figures. 

But it appears at least Clemson and FSU want to make a move before that date in order to take full advantage of the new market that has emerged since the landmark expansion phases that took place last offseason.

But at this point, it's all speculation. This timeline will not move quickly.

"The ACC will delay this as long as they can," McMurphy said. "In a weird way, it's almost like they're taking a page out of that strategy book of the great Dean Smith," referring to the legendary North Carolina basketball coach.

"They're gonna stall, they're gonna stall, they're gonna stall. Finally, if the judge tells them you've got to reach a settlement, then they will do that. But until then, they're going to hold off and hope that it's several years and not just a couple of years."

(McMurphy on Finebaum)

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