Florida State's playoff chances fall after Georgia Tech upset loss

Where things stand with Florida State's odds to make the College Football Playoff after the Seminoles dropped a stunning loss to unranked Georgia Tech in college football's Week 0 game.

A year after getting snubbed in the College Football Playoff rankings, Florida State's CFP hopes took another shot after a Week 0 loss. / David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

It took one game for college football to have its first upset, as No. 10 ranked, ACC favorite Florida State dropped a three-point decision to Georgia Tech in Saturday's Week 0 game in Dublin.

And as a result, the Seminoles' shot at winning the ACC and making the newly-expanded College Football Playoff took a major hit, according to a football analytical model.

College Football Power Index is an analytic computer tool and rankings system devised by ESPN that projects a team's future performance by simulating its games 20,000 times.

Florida State is projected to win just 7.5 games and lose 4.7 more, which, rounding it out, would imply it would finish with a 7-5 record this season, according to the index.

The model favors the Seminoles to win out with just a 1.2 percent chance, and the team is no longer the favorite to win the ACC, with a mere 9.5 percent chance.

Clemson is now the favorite, with a 23.2 percent shot to hoist the trophy in Charlotte, and thus represent the ACC in the playoff. Louisville is second at 14 percent, and Miami third at 10.6 percent.

Florida State has a 12.3 percent chance to qualify for the new playoff, ranking just sixth in the ACC in that category. Clemson leads in that grouping at 29.3 percent.

And the Seminoles' schedule doesn't get much easier going forward.

FSU squares off against conference foe Boston College in primetime on Labor Day and the week after hosts a Memphis team coming off a 10-win season and earning hype as a contender to earn the Group of Five's playoff bid.

A road trip to SMU follows two weeks later before the Seminoles host Clemson and then play two on the road, against Duke and then Miami.

Florida State plays at Notre Dame on Nov. 9 and hosts rival Florida in the finale on Nov. 30.

In all, the Seminoles play three teams in the preseason AP top 25 rankings, a conference champion, and a rival from the SEC.

Win out against that slate, and the Seminoles will play for the ACC championship and likely the expanded College Football Playoff after that.

But starting off at 0-1 after one game, and there's basically no margin for error out of the gate.

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