Michigan upsets Ohio State: How it affects the College Football Playoff

Where things stand in the new, and very fluid, College Football Playoff rankings and bracket picture after Ohio State blew it against Michigan.

Ohio State dropped a fourth-straight game to arch-rival Michigan, throwing the College Football Playoff rankings projection into some more confusion. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State losing in a shocking upset against unranked rival Michigan will keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game, but the team’s College Football Playoff hopes are another matter, leaving plenty to still look forward to in the next few weeks.

While we can expect Ohio State to definitely fall from its lofty perch at No. 2 in the committee rankings and from its projected No. 5 seed in the bracket, the rest of the team’s resume across this season should keep the Buckeyes among the top dozen when selection day finally comes.

How far could Ohio State fall? The loss, combined with other teams winning their games, should see the Buckeyes tumble at least to the No. 10 position, likely still ahead of Indiana, owing to their head-to-head win over the Hoosiers and OSU’s superior overall resume.

Ohio State still has two wins against top 10 teams this season, including that dominant 38-15 decision against Indiana, and played current No. 1 Oregon to a one-point loss on the road.

Taking that into consideration, combined with Indiana’s poor strength of schedule, a metric the selection committee takes very seriously, there likely wouldn’t be much that Indiana can do against Purdue in its regular season finale to surpass Ohio State’s sum total of accomplishments.

Some in the committee room may also argue that Ohio State should stay ranked ahead of two-loss Tennessee, as the Buckeyes beat two teams that are higher-ranked than the Vols’ most important win of the season, against current No. 13 Alabama, which has three losses.

Entering the season finale, Ohio State was a nearly 20-point favorite against unranked Michigan and apparently in cruise control to play for the Big Ten title and host a first-round playoff game.

Now, it appears the Buckeyes will have to settle for a road game to kick off the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Either way, the tenure of head coach Ryan Day remains under intense criticism after a listless performance against a Michigan team his Buckeyes were supposed to dominate, and that throws the school’s postseason future into doubt.

Here’s our rough projection for what the College Football Playoff rankings and bracket projection could look like after Michigan upset Ohio State on Saturday ...

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Miami
4. Boise State
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Ohio State
11. Indiana
12. Arizona State

In this projection, Ohio State would play a first-round College Football Playoff game at Georgia between the hedges, a marked increase in difficulty from where this team stood last week.

A week ago, the Buckeyes were projected to host No. 12 Arizona State in the first round, a game in which Ohio State would have been a more generous favorite.

Proving that, even in the 12-team playoff era, what you do in the regular season still matters.

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