One Power 4 Coach Reportedly on 'Thin Ice' Heading Into 2026 College Football Season

A national college football reporter believes this coach is likely to be fired first in the 2026 season.

Jul 15, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell speaks to the media during ACC Media Days at Hilton Charlotte Uptown. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Coaching changes swept across the college football landscape in 2025.

From UCLA's parting with DeShaun Foster in September to Michigan's termination of Sherrone Moore with cause in December, roughly a quarter of all Power Four programs moved on from their sitting head coaches.

The seats across the Power Four ranks are collectively cooler in 2026 due to all the turnover last season, but there are still several prominent seats closing in on their boiling points.

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic predicted which college football coach will lose his job first this season. Mandel's guess was Mike Norvell, who enters his seventh season of a turbulent tenure at Florida State.

The Seminoles play two very demanding September games against SMU and Alabama, and October ACC failures could result in a termination.

The Seminoles steadily climbed in Norvell's first four seasons

Florida State running back Lawrance Toafili (9) dodges Louisville defenders during the ACC championship title in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Florida State hired Norvell to replace Willie Taggart in the 2020 offseason, a tricky time to build a program given all of the restrictions due to the pandemic. The Seminoles finished Norvell's first 12-game season on the job with a 5-7 record; it began sourly with a loss to then-FCS Jacksonville State in the second week, but the Seminoles managed to finish 4-4 in ACC play.

2022 and 2023 were some of Florida State's best seasons in close to a decade. The 2022 Cheez-It Bowl victory over Oklahoma allowed the Seminoles to finish a season with 10 wins for the first time since 2016, and 2023 marked their first unbeaten regular season since 2014.

Florida State has sharply declined the last two seasons

The Seminoles' regression from 2023 to 2024 is one of the worst by a major program in recent memory. The 2-10 mark was Florida State's worst in 50 seasons; the Seminoles were downright abysmal at the point of attack, and they only scored more than 20 points once against an FBS opponent.

Florida State's upset victory over Alabama to open 2025 gave the Seminole faithful a false sense of hope. The Seminoles finished ACC play at 2-6, lowering Norvell's mark against conference foes to 3-13 over the last two seasons.

Who could challenge Norvell for the race to get fired first?

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Wisconsin Football head coach Luke Fickell speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Mandel explicitly mentioned Luke Fickell at Wisconsin as a potential early-season firing. The Badgers are coming off a 4-8 season, and potentially uninspiring losses to Notre Dame and Penn State, coupled with a potential home loss to Michigan State, could be enough to send Fickell on his merry way.

Within the ACC, Clemson and North Carolina are a pair of programs to watch for early-to-midseason partings. The Tigers' trips to LSU and California and home game against Miami could result in a 2-3 start, and any slip-ups past the bye week could result in boiling frustration with Dabo Swinney.

Matchups with TCU, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh present a chance for North Carolina's 2026 season to get off the rails in a hurry. Additionally, the constant off-field controversy surrounding Bill Belichick is an administrative nightmare.