Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers prediction: Who wins the 2024 Iron Bowl game, and why?

What to watch for as Alabama welcomes Auburn in the 2024 Iron Bowl, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction for the Iron Bowl Game / Butch Dill-Imagn Images

Here’s what you need to watch for as Alabama and Auburn square off in the 2024 edition of the Iron Bowl, one of college football’s greatest rivalries, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama appears to have played itself out of College Football Playoff consideration after a shocking 24-3 loss at unranked Oklahoma last week that raises questions about the state of the program under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer.

And while there’s still technically a path for the Crimson Tide to crack the top dozen, it’s a long and winding road that involves a bevy of other upsets around the country over the weekend.

Auburn is coming off a signature four-overtime victory against SEC title hopeful Texas A&M and at 5-6 is just one win away from bowl eligibility, which the team would love to earn at Alabama’s expense.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide welcome the Tigers in the Iron Bowl this weekend?

Here’s what you should be watching for as Alabama and Auburn square off in this Week 14 college football rivalry classic.

Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: What to watch for in the Iron Bowl

1. On the ground. Jarquez Hunter remains the principal offensive weapon for Auburn. The tailback has rushed for 1,174 yards and scored 8 touchdowns this season, and has played his best football recently in signature wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M.

Hunter ran for a career-high 278 yards while scoring twice against UK and had a season-best 3 touchdowns against the Aggies, and is good for 6.6 yards per carry on average this year.

Auburn is 4-0 this season when Hunter rushes for at least 100 yards, and 1-6 when he doesn’t. That’s the magic number for Alabama, which is 63rd in rush defense, to watch for.

2. In the air. Auburn’s offense has been derailed too often this season by turnover troubles, but over the last three games, it’s averaging more than 281 passing yards per game.

Payton Thorne has impressed in that span, completing nearly 65 percent of his pass attempts while throwing 8 interceptions and just 1 pick while eclipsing 300 yards in consecutive games.

But now he’s throwing against an Alabama pass defense that comes into the game ranked second in the SEC in total production and on a per-pass basis, and has intercepted 14 passes this season.

3. QB questions. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been integral to the team’s success on offense given his dynamic dual-threat ability, but his production and been off and on this season, and was notably off last weekend.

Milroe was held to no touchdowns, all of 7 rushing yards, and he threw 3 interceptions, one of which was returned for a score, in that stunning, playoff-killing result against Oklahoma.

On the other hand, he was almost singlehandedly responsible for salvaging Alabama’s season when he ran for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns in an effective playoff-elimination game at LSU.

Auburn checks in with the No. 7 total defense in the SEC and will have to generate a lot of pressure early on to throw Milroe off his game, but the unit struggled to contain Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who enjoyed a career day passing against this group last week.

More ... Alabama vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl history, scores, notable games

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 10.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Iron Bowl game.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -400 and for Auburn at +310 to win outright.

Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: Who wins?

If not for all those turnovers, Auburn’s offense could have looked all season the way it did last week against the Aggies, especially with the kind of receiver talent it has to exploit.

But this time around, it could be the run game the Tigers lean more on, using Hunter to wear down the Tide’s defense the way Oklahoma did on the ground a week ago, and even get quarterback Payton Thorne involved more on the ground to help wear down the clock and keep Bama off the field.

That could become a problem for an Alabama defense that has injuries at linebacker and might be limited in how many bodies it can use to plug those gaps and keep Auburn from gaining some early momentum running the football.

Milroe’s struggles are concerning, but much of what went wrong last week can also be pinned on his receivers not giving him all the help they could, especially on that pick-six.

There’s still enough of a talent gap between these two teams to realistically pick against the Tide, especially at home, and Milroe has played his best football when he absolutely had to.

Alabama ranking second nationally with 25 takeaways plays directly into Auburn’s most prominent weakness, where it ranks 114th in giveaways this season (26).

Still, the Tigers’ newfound offensive confidence is enough to see this team staying with 10 points of a very inconsistent Alabama side whose dashed playoff hopes might cut into their motivation.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 27-20
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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How to watch the 2024 Iron Bowl Game

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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