Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Alabama and LSU meet in this Week 11 college football rivalry matchup, with our prediction for this playoff elimination game.

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

An elimination game of sorts kicks off from Death Valley as No. 15 LSU welcomes No. 11 Alabama in college football’s Week 11 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Just about everything is on the line, as these SEC rivals come into Week 11 in a precarious position after the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season were revealed.

Alabama sits just inside, and LSU is just outside, that coveted top-dozen and the loser would be practically eliminated from the playoff picture with a crowded field of other teams looking to compete for one of those 12 spots.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide and the Tigers meet in this SEC rivalry matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and LSU meet in this Week 11 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Alabama vs. LSU prediction: What to watch for

1. On the ground. LSU ranks last in the SEC in rushing offense with 115 yards per game, but could find some holes against an Alabama run stop that is allowing 151 yards on the ground to opponents in SEC play this season.

The problem is, LSU just lost left guard Garrett Dellinger to an ankle injury and won’t play in the game. The line struggled to open running lanes with him out of the rotation and now the task gets tougher to establish the run and keep the Crimson Tide’s defense honest.

2. Contain the QB. LSU has proven vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks at times this season, especially after Marcel Reed entered the game two weeks ago for Texas A&M, running for three touchdowns, and was instrumental in that second-half comeback effort.

Jalen Milroe presents the same threat, if not more so given his consistent production, but he’s also been susceptible against opposing pass rushers, being sacked 11 times in the last 4 games, and LSU has markedly improved its pressure this season, ranking 9th nationally with 28 sacks and averaging 6.13 stops behind the line per game.

3. Battle at the line. LSU fields one of the nation’s premier offensive lines, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, only 24 tackles for loss all year, and is the only line in the SEC that averages less than 1 sack allowed per game.

That all adds up to a perceived advantage against an Alabama front seven that has 18 sacks and 45 tackles for loss all season, but the unit has improved over time this season, especially when it looks to generate pressure against quarterbacks and will look to get after Garrett Nussmeier before he can get the ball out of his hands.

What the analytics say

Most analytical prediction models favor the Crimson Tide going against the Tigers this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is a solid favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 69.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -138 and for LSU at +115 to win outright.

Alabama: -2.5 (-120)
LSU: +2.5 (-102)

Over 58.5 points: -114
Under 58.5 points: -106

Alabama vs. LSU prediction: Who wins?

This is basically a toss-up. Both teams are evenly matched, both are under enormous pressure to preserve their playoff hopes, and each have advantages against each others’ weaknesses.

Jalen Milroe is the key to Alabama’s offensive success. His combination of deep-field accuracy and mobility in and out of the pocket is a dangerous mix that could expose an LSU defense that has played better near the line this season, but is still a vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks.

LSU’s offense is very reliant on the passing game, ranking fifth nationally by throwing the ball on 61 percent of snaps, and its success depends on the ability of Nussmeier to avoid turnovers.

He has the weapons on the perimeter who can credibly test the Crimson Tide’s back seven tacklers, but the quarterback could be vulnerable against Alabama’s front line pressure, especially with a sudden hole on the interior of LSU’s line after Dellinger’s departure.

But the inability of LSU to consistently balance out its offense, Milroe’s dynamic play-making ability running and passing, and the Tide’s relative advantage running the ball on the Tigers’ front, and it looks like Bama’s playoff hopes will get a reprieve this week.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 37-34
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Alabama vs. LSU score prediction by expert model

How to watch Alabama vs. LSU

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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