Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Alabama and Oklahoma meet in this new-look SEC matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction 2024 / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

What you should watch for as Oklahoma welcomes No. 7 Alabama in this new-look SEC football matchup on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama comes into this weekend as the projected No. 9 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket, but with two losses in SEC play, there’s no margin for error going forward with other teams looking to take advantage in a crowded field around the top dozen.

Oklahoma hasn’t been a factor for weeks, just 1-5 in SEC play and losing four straight conference games and has this game and the finale against LSU to become bowl eligible.

Alabama and Oklahoma are two of college football’s winningest programs ever, combining for 25 national championships, but have met just six times before this weekend.

Oklahoma holds the 3-2-1 all-time series lead, but Alabama won most recently, in a 45-34 win in the Orange Bowl semifinal game in 2018.

What can we expect when the Crimson Tide and Sooners square off in this SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and Oklahoma meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: What you need to know

1. At the line. Oklahoma’s offensive line has been a source of real angst for this team from the beginning, resulting in 7 different rotations being employed over the course of the season, but none of them have really panned out.

OU comes into this week having allowed 41 sacks, the most in the country and a school record dating back nearly a decade, and surrendered 80 tackles for loss and exactly 8 negative plays per game, both numbers ranking 128th among 134 FBS teams this year.

Advantage, Alabama. OU’s offense has sputtered all season as the line isn’t giving either of its quarterbacks much time to work, putting a premium on getting the ball out quickly and an emphasis on the Tide defense to limit yards after contact and the catch.

2. On the ground. Amid its other struggles this season, Oklahoma comes into the game ranked No. 18 nationally in run defense and should be the best group the Tide has run against in a month. 

Alabama is second in the country with 37 rushing touchdowns and averages 5.12 yards per carry, while the Sooners surrender just 2.89 yards per attempt and have allowed just 8 touchdowns on the ground.

Crucial to the Crimson Tide’s ground production has been the play of quarterback Jalen Milroe, whose 17 rushing touchdowns are 2 more than the 15 he’s thrown for, and the former number is the second-most among quarterbacks nationally.

3. Red zone. It’s strength vs. strength when Alabama’s offense meets Oklahoma’s defense inside the 20-yard line. Alabama is tops in the SEC and 9th nationally by scoring touchdowns on 77.5 percent of its red zone possessions, while OU is 7th in FBS, holding opponents to just 14 touchdowns in the red area this year.

What the analytics say

Most football computer models expect the Crimson Tide will handle the Sooners in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

That model is calling Alabama a heavy favorite, as it comes out ahead in 81.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Oklahoma the presumptive winner in the remaining 18.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 13.3 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -610 and for Oklahoma at +440 to win outright.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Oklahoma has the bodies in the front seven to credibly test the Tide’s offensive rhythm early in the game, and can apply some decent pressure that forces Jalen Milroe into some hurried plays.

But as has been the case most of the season, Oklahoma’s offense won’t be able to keep up its end of the deal, and eventually the defense will give way without those extra points to defend.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 34-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Norman, Okla.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks