Alabama vs. Western Kentucky score prediction by college football expert model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Western Kentucky in this Week 1 college football game as Kalen DeBoer makes his Crimson Tide debut at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers prediction by college football expert model / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The day many Alabama football fans have been fearing has arrived, as the Crimson Tide will take the field without Nick Saban leading the team. Instead, it will be head coach Kalen DeBoer on the sideline leading Bama against Western Kentucky in college football's Week 1 action on Saturday.

DeBoer predictably lost some of Saban's players to the transfer portal, most notably All-American safety Caleb Downs, but kept his fair share, too, including star quarterback Jalen Milroe, a dual threat dynamo under center who should fit perfectly into the offensive guru's system.

That system has stacked up wins across DeBoer's career as a head coach; he's a remarkable 104-12 overall at three different schools and helped turn around Washington into a national finalist before being named Saban's successor.

But the SEC and Alabama are a whole other universe compared to the Huskies, Sioux Falls, and Fresno State, the previous stops in DeBoer's career as a head coach.

What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ computer prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Western Kentucky compare, with an updated game prediction.

Alabama vs. Western Kentucky prediction

The simulations predictably favor the Crimson Tide to hold firm at home in the season opener.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Western Kentucky by a projected score of 46 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 31.9 points.

The model projects the Crimson Tide to win the game with 98 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Alabama vs. WKU game odds

Alabama is a 31.5 point favorite against Western Kentucky, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 59.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -10000 and for Western Kentucky at +3000.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Alabama -31.5
• Bama to win -10000
• Bet over 59.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools also expect the Crimson Tide to take care of business at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game in 97.4 percent of the model's simulations, leaving the Hilltoppers as the expected winner in the remaining 2.6 percent of sims.

The index forecasts that Alabama will be 31.2 points better than Western Kentucky on any field in both team's current composition, not quite enough to cover this line.

The model projects Alabama will win 9.2 games this season and sits in third place to win the SEC championship at 13.8 percent likelihood.

And at 56.8 percent to make the College Football Playoff, the index firmly puts the Crimson Tide among the 12 most likely teams to qualify for the new playoff bracket.

The computers expect Western Kentucky to win 6.1 games this season with a 60.4 percent chance to become bowl eligible and is third in Conference USA with a 12.8 percent shot to win the league.

Alabama vs. Western Kentucky game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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