Alabama vs. Auburn football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Alabama vs. Auburn in the 2024 Iron Bowl, from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Alabama vs. Auburn football predictions for Iron Bowl 2024 / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

The 2024 edition of the Iron Bowl kicks off this weekend as Alabama welcomes Auburn in arguably college football’s most hotly-contested rivalry. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Alabama currently sits as the second team out in the selection committee’s latest College Football Playoff bracket after last week’s stunning loss at Oklahoma.

Auburn just needs to win this game to become bowl eligible in Hugh Freeze’s first year as head coach, and is looking to deliver the coup de grace to Alabama’s lingering playoff hopes.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Auburn predictions

As expected, the models are siding pretty strongly with the Crimson Tide over the Tigers.

Alabama is the big favorite in this year’s Iron Bowl, coming out ahead in 87.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Crimson Tide comes out on top in 17,540 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edge out Bama in the other 2,460 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Alabama is projected to be 17.4 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the big spread over the Tigers.

That’s because Alabama is an 11.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -450 and for Auburn at +340 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers to keep things close against the Crimson Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Auburn is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the margin under 12 points in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Alabama will win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

Alabama vs. Auburn future projections

Alabama comes into this week 14th among 134 FBS teams with a 29.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That’s good for fourth among SEC teams, behind Tennessee (78.8%), Georgia (94.5%) , and current conference favorite Texas (97%).

But to get back into the good graces of the selection committee, the Crimson Tide need to not just win this game, but hope for some major chaos around the country.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch the 2024 Iron Bowl game

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

More ... Alabama vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl history, scores, notable games

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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