Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Auburn in the 2024 Iron Bowl from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction 2024 / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

It’s time once again for the Iron Bowl, as Alabama and Auburn reunite in one of college football’s most passionate rivalry games. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama may have already played itself out of College Football Playoff consideration after last week’s stunning loss at unranked Oklahoma, but there’s still something like a path to the playoff provided it can win this game and hope for some chaos around the country, too.

Auburn is one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach Hugh Freeze’s second season and coming off a four-overtime win against SEC title hopeful Texas A&M, and has a chance to snap Alabama’s 16-year streak of winning double-digit games.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Crimson Tide host the Tigers in the Iron Bowl?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Auburn compare in this Week 14 college football classic.

Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Crimson Tide over the Tigers, and by a decent margin.

SP+ predicts Alabama will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 34 to 18 and to win the game by an expected margin of 16.2 points.

The model gives the Tide a strong 84 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Alabama vs. Auburn odds, how to pick the 2024 Iron Bowl Game

Alabama is an 11.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook in this week’s matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -430 and for Auburn at +330 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama -11.5
• Crimson Tide to win -430
• Bet under 52.5 points

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers to keep things close against the Crimson Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Auburn is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the margin under 12 points in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Alabama will win the game and cover the double-digit spread.

Computer prediction

In addition to SP+, most other football analytical models side with the Crimson Tide over the Tigers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is the big favorite in this year’s Iron Bowl, coming out ahead in 87.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Alabama is projected to be 17.4 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch the 2024 Iron Bowl game

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

More ... Alabama vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl history, scores, notable games

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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