Alabama vs. Georgia prediction: Who wins, and why?

Our updated prediction for Alabama vs. Georgia in a marquee early SEC matchup that could go a long way in how the College Football Playoff eventually looks.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

The marquee matchup of the 2024 season kicks off from Bryant-Denny Stadium, as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 2 Georgia in a bombshell confrontation between ranked SEC rivals and national title hopefuls in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

A month into his debut season, the game represents by far Kalen DeBoer’s biggest test in his mission to replace Nick Saban, and a major proving ground for him to convince an uncertain fanbase that he can uphold the program’s lofty standard in games of this magnitude.

There’s plenty of pressure on Georgia, too. The favorite to win the national title at the sportsbooks since the end of last season, the team lost its No. 1 ranking after a sloppy win at Kentucky and this game is the first of three huge road tests against top-10 ranked competition.

It’s also a chance for the Bulldogs to avenge a loss in last year’s SEC Championship Game at the hands of the Crimson Tide, in what became Saban’s final victory at Bama, spoiling UGA’s perfect season and a shot at what would have been a third-straight national championship.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch for as Georgia and Alabama face off in college football’s big Week 5 tilt, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. Georgia prediction, preview

Contain the QB. Georgia’s defense has allowed just 2 plays of 20-plus yards, but Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe will test that team strength with a battery of scripted and improvised runs that will spread things out as DeBoer looks to translate his aggressive offense to the SEC, placing a heavy premium on Georgia’s ability to keep him bottled up.

Milroe also ranks 1st nationally with 5 TD passes of 20 yards this season, dealing to a young group of receivers who have the speed to challenge the Bulldogs’ superb secondary. Georgia needs to close down his escape routes to the outside, and remove at least one dimension of his game.

Test Bama’s secondary. There was some concern about this unit in the preseason after losing four elite ball hawks, even drawing some concern from Saban in his role as a TV analyst. But so far, the early returns from this versatile group suggest that coordinator Kane Wommack’s plans are working.

Alabama ranks 1st nationally by allowing just 6.2 yards per passing attempt and is surrendering just over 52 percent completion from opposing passers.

But the competition is about to get a lot better, as Carson Beck will be the best quarterback by far this unit goes up against thus far. It’s up to a group of Georgia receivers who are yet to really dominate to prove they can challenge Bama’s pass D.

Run the ball. So far, Georgia’s rushing attack has not played up to expectations. The team ranks just 84th nationally by rushing for 145.7 yards per game and totaled only 3.4 yards per carry against Kentucky two weeks ago.

In the SEC title game a year ago, Georgia ran for 2.5 yards per attempt, revealing then as now a discrepancy between the Bulldogs’ rushing capacity and the Tide’s rotation up front against the run.

The big plays. Both these offenses have the capacity to peel off some big gainers down the field, while both defenses are equipped to prevent exactly that. Georgia has the edge defensively in preventing explosive plays, but the Crimson Tide’s cadre of skill players will test their resolve.

Georgia has thrown 13 passes of 20-plus yards, 7 of 30-plus yards, and 2 of 40-plus yards, while Alabama has the slight edge, having completed 11 throws of 20-plus yards, 6 passes of 30-plus yards, 4 throws of at least 40 yards, and 2 passes of 50 or more.

On the ground, the Tide has run 23 times for 10-plus yards, 9 times of at least 20 yards, 5 for 30, 3 for 40, 2 for 50, and 1 for 60-plus yards. Georgia is at a slight disadvantage on big run plays, running 13 times for 10-plus yards, 3 times for 20-plus, 2 for 30, and 2 for 40-plus yards.

Defensively, the Bulldogs have allowed just 9 runs of 10-plus yards and 1 attempt of 20-plus, while the Crimson Tide has surrendered 14 carries of 10-plus yards and 2 of 20 or more.

Georgia and Alabama are 2 of 30 teams in FBS yet to allow a rush attempt of 30-plus yards this season.

What the analytics say

Many analytical models are favoring the Crimson Tide at home against the Bulldogs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game in the majority 65.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 34.2 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 6.2 points better than Georgia on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Georgia is a 1.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -118 and for Alabama at -102 to win outright.

Most bettors are siding with the Tide, too.

A solid majority of bets, 61 percent, predict that Alabama will either win in an upset, or keep the game within a single point.

And the remaining 39 percent of wagers are taking Georgia to win and cover, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama vs. Georgia prediction

Games of this magnitude, especially in the SEC, tend to be decided on the lines of scrimmage.

For all the dynamic quarterback play and the high-flying receivers, it still comes down to who can push who around for longer.

Georgia has the advantage on the defensive line, and will throw a continual rotation of bodies at the Tide’s protection hoping to jostle Milroe out of his rhythm, allowing the secondary a little more time to match up against Bama’s young, speedy receivers.

And while the Bulldogs’ protection did look very out of sorts against Kentucky, cutting into the team’s rushing ability and receiver play, it might be a mistake to read too much into that game.

Georgia always has some early-season clunker that gets everyone worried, only to run through the rest of their schedule. It won’t run through Alabama, but the team with the better defense and quarterback usually wins these games, and right now, that’s still Georgia.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Georgia wins 27-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More from Alabama vs. Georgia

• Score prediction by expert model
• 3 ways Georgia beats Alabama
• 3 ways Alabama beats Georgia

How to watch Georgia vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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