Alabama vs. LSU football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Alabama vs. LSU in this Week 11 college football game.

Alabama vs. LSU football predictions / Butch Dill-Imagn Images

A key SEC football rivalry kicks off under the lights as No. 14 LSU welcomes No. 11 Alabama as both teams look to avoid a costly loss. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Alabama moved to 3-2 in SEC play after beating up on Missouri, but is still playing on a razor thin margin as playoff selection nears and can’t afford any mistakes.

Likewise for LSU, which fell to 3-1 in conference after a loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago, and has two losses overall heading into this critical rivalry matchup.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. LSU predictions

So far, the models are giving a big advantage to the Crimson Tide over the Tigers in this one.

Alabama is a big favorite to win the game, coming out ahead in the majority 69.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.2 percent of models.

In total, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 13,960 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edged out Bama in the other 6,040 predictions.

But those figures represent a mere win-loss dynamic. How do the models translate into a margin of victory between these SEC rivals?

Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -146 and for LSU at +122 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a slight majority of bettors expect the Crimson Tide to take down the Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 52 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 48 percent of wagers expect LSU will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the score under a field goal in a loss.

Alabama vs. LSU future predictions

Alabama is fourth among SEC teams with a 55 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Crimson Tide a win total projection of 9.5 games this season.

As for LSU, the index forecasts a 20.4 percent chance to make the playoff, good enough to rank sixth in the SEC entering this weekend.

And the computers give the Tigers a win total prediction of 8.4 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Alabama vs. LSU

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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