Alabama vs. LSU score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. LSU in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. LSU score prediction / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

A marquee SEC rivalry returns to the gridiron under the lights as No. 11 Alabama hits the road against No. 15 LSU in a playoff elimination game of sorts. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

LSU dropped to 3-1 in SEC play two weeks ago and has no margin for error with two losses overall and sitting three spots outside one of the 12 positions in the College Football Playoff.

Likewise for Alabama, which sits just inside one of the coveted top 12 spots in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but another loss would almost certainly eliminate it from contention.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Crimson Tide and Tigers face off in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and LSU compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Alabama vs. LSU score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Crimson Tide on the road, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat LSU by a projected score of 33 to 28 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.6 points.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a 64 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Alabama vs. LSU odds, how to pick

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -137 and for LSU at +114 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama -2.5
• Bama to win -137
• Bet over 57.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a slight majority of bettors who are taking the Crimson Tide over the Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game on the road and cover the narrow spread.

The other 46 percent of wagers project LSU will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a field goal in a loss at home.

Alabama vs. LSU splits

Alabama comes into the game ranked No. 10 nationally with a plus-19 point differential this season when averaging out the wins and losses.

LSU is 8.1 points better than the opposition in its games so far this season on average.

Those margins have narrowed over the last three games for both teams.

LSU is 4 points better than opponents while Alabama has been 9.7 points better than the competition over that span.

Playing at home, the Tigers have dominated opponents, averaging out 17.3 points better than visitors in Death Valley in 2024.

Alabama has played close games on the road, scoring 6.7 points more than opponents on average when away from home.

Alabama ranks No. 7 nationally by averaging 0.580 points per play on offense this season, while LSU is 45th in FBS by surrendering 0.340 points per play on defense.

Offensively, the Tigers rank No. 44 by averaging 0.435 points per play, compared to an Alabama defense that ranks 9th in FBS by allowing 0.250 points per play on average.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Crimson Tide going against the Tigers this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is a solid favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 69.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 30.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Alabama vs. LSU future projections

Alabama is fourth among SEC teams with a 61.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Crimson Tide a win total projection of 9.5 games this season.

LSU is expected to win 8.4 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations for the team.

FPI gives the Tigers a 20.2 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff this year.

How to watch Alabama vs. LSU

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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