Alabama vs. Michigan score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Michigan in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. Michigan football score prediction 2024 / John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Alabama and Michigan reunite to square off in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl game on New Year’s Eve in a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama just missed out on the College Football Playoff in its inaugural 12-team format, playing to a 9-3 record in Kalen DeBoer’s first year as head coach, but despite some relative struggles, still averages more than 36 points per game and is allowing less than 18 on average to opponents.

Defending national champion Michigan (7-5) was a shell of its former self, ranking fourth-worst nationally in passing production and just 113th in scoring, but finished on a high note, upsetting rival Ohio State in the finale despite being a huge underdog in The Game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Crimson Tide and Wolverines meet in the postseason?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Michigan compare in college football’s annual ReliaQuest Bowl game.

Alabama vs. Michigan score prediction

As expected, the models are siding more with the SEC team over its Big Ten challenger, and by a fairly sizable difference, too.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 32 to 15 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a strong 85 percent chance of outright victory over the Wolverines.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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ReliaQuest Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -600 and for Michigan at +430 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama -13.5
• Bama to win -600
• Bet over 43.5 points

A narrow majority of bettors are taking that position and expect the Tide to roll over the Wolverines, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 51 percent of bets to win by at least two touchdowns and cover this big point spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Michigan will either win outright in an upset or keep the final margin to under two touchdowns in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Crimson Tide over the Wolverines in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is the big favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 80.7 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

Michigan isn’t expected to win based on all the projections, but came out on top of the Tide in the remaining 19.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

By taking an average of all the possible outcomes, the computer projects that Alabama will be 12.7 points better than Michigan on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl Game

When: Tues., Dec. 31
Where: Tampa, Fla.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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