Alabama vs. Missouri football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical football model that picks winners offers a new prediction for Alabama vs. Missouri in this Week 9 college football game between ranked SEC rivals.

Alabama vs. Missouri football prediction / William McLelland-Imagn Images

SEC football is back this weekend as No. 15 Alabama welcomes No. 21 Missouri in a battle of conference teams looking to avoid another costly loss on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks winners.

Alabama is 2-2 in SEC play after a loss at Tennessee last week and is looking to avoid falling under .500 in conference games heading into this home tilt against the ranked Tigers.

Mizzou improved to 2-1 in conference but needed a comeback effort to take down Auburn at home, inspired by quarterback Brady Cook, who left that game with an injury, went to the hospital, came back, warmed up at the practice facility, and returned to action to rally his team in a win.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Missouri predictions

So far, the simulations are giving a considerable edge to the Crimson Tide over the Tigers at home.

Alabama is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 82.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Missouri as the expected winner in the remaining 17.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Crimson Tide came out ahead in 16,500 of the index’s simulations, while the Tigers edged out Bama in the other 3,500 of the predictions.

The index gives the Tide a double-digit advantage over Mizzou on the scoreboard.

Alabama is projected to be 13.9 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -550 and for Missouri at +400 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a slight majority of bettors are giving the Tigers a shot against the Crimson Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Missouri is getting 55 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the score under the 13.5 point line.

The other 45 percent of wagers project Alabama will beat Missouri and cover the spread, winning by at least 2 touchdowns.

Alabama vs. Missouri future predictions

Alabama is fourth among SEC teams with a 44.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Tide a win total prediction of 9.2 games this season.

Missouri is eighth in the conference with a 16 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

And it will win 8.7 games this season, according to the index’s calculations.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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