Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Missouri takes on Alabama in this Week 9 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for this critical SEC game.

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction / Gary Cosby-Imagn Images

SEC football is back this weekend with conference teams each in need of some wins as No. 15 Alabama plays host to No. 21 Missouri in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama fell to 2-2 in SEC play after a loss at Tennessee last week, and despite being just 11 combined points away from being undefeated, head coach Kalen DeBoer finds his team’s playoff hopes slipping away heading into November football.

Missouri improved to 2-1 in conference games after beating Auburn, but there are major questions around the availability of quarterback Brady Cook and tailback Nate Noel as both deal with injuries, and whose absence could severely curtail the team’s offensive output.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide and Tigers square off in this SEC clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Missouri takes on Alabama in this Week 9 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: Who has the edge?

Alabama vs. Missouri Prediction / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Scoring offense

Alabama ranks No. 19 nationally in scoring offense, averaging 38.1 points per game, and are 5th in the country with 37 touchdowns scored in total.

Missouri is 43rd in the country by scoring 31.7 points per game on average and is responsible for a total of 25 touchdowns scored.

Edge: Alabama

Scoring defense

Alabama is 41st in FBS by allowing opponents to score 21.3 points per game on average, and has surrendered a total of 18 touchdowns to other teams (47th).

Mizzou is 10th nationally, surrendering 15.6 points on average to opponents, and rank 13th in FBS in allowing just 13 total touchdowns.

Edge: Missouri

Total offense

Alabama is 46th nationally in averaging 424 total yards per game on offense and is 18th when it comes to its per play average, posting 6.76 yards per snap.

Missouri is No. 72 in FBS with 5.81 yards per play and No. 47 with 422 yards per game.

Edge: Alabama

Total defense

Missouri comes into the game ranked 9th nationally in total defense, allowing 273 yards per game to opponents, and is No. 21 in FBS in allowing 4.86 yards per play.

Alabama is 16th nationally by surrendering 4.79 yards per play and ranks 59th in FBS by allowing 352 yards per game on average.

Edge: Missouri

Third down offense

Alabama ranks 50th in FBS in third down production, converting 35 of its 83 opportunities for a success rate of 42.17 percent.

Missouri is 4th nationally on the money down with 52 successful conversions total, and its 49.06 percent success rate against 106 opportunities ranks 14th best in the country.

Edge: Alabama

Third down defense

Alabama is 30th in FBS allowing opponents to convert 36 of a possible 110 third down attempts for a success rate of 32.73 percent.

Mizzou is 9th nationally by surrendering 26 successful conversions against 91 attempts on third down (28.57 percent).

Edge: Missouri

Red zone offense

Missouri is 19th in the country when playing in scoring position, coming away with points on 26 of 28 chances for a 92.86 percent success rate.

Of those scores, 18 of the 28 scores are touchdowns (64.29 percent), ranking 63rd in touchdown percentage in the red area.

Alabama is 83rd in red zone production, scoring points on 82.14 percent of possessions inside the 20, coming away with points on 23 of 28 attempts.

And the Crimson Tide ranks 12th nationally with 21 red zone touchdowns, which represent 75% of its red zone scores.

Edge: Missouri

Red zone defense

Missouri is 34th nationally by allowing opponents to score on 11 of 14 red zone opportunities for a success rate of 78.57 percent. 

Of those 14 scores, 7 have been touchdowns, the third-lowest mark in the country.

Alabama is 56th in red zone defense, letting opponents score on 18 of 22 chances and 13 of those scores were converted into touchdowns (59.09 percent).

Edge: Missouri

Alabama’s offense vs. Missouri’s defense

Alabama averages 0.588 points per play on offense, good for No. 10 nationally, compared to Missouri allowing 0.306 points per play on defense, ranking 34th in the country.

Bama posts 6.5 yards per play on offense (17th in FBS) against a Tigers defense that allows 5.1 yards per play, ranking 46th nationally.

Edge: Alabama

Missouri’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense

Missouri averages 0.383 points per play on offense, ranking No. 62 nationally, against an Alabama defense that surrenders 0.281 points per play, 17th in FBS this season.

Mizzou is 64th in the country by averaging 5.5 yards per play, while Alabama allowed 4.6 yards per play on defense, averaging 16th nationally.

Edge: Missouri

Alabama vs. Missouri splits

On average, Alabama is 16.9 points better than opponents this season, compared to a Missouri team that is 10.3 points better than its opposition on average.

In the last three games, however, Missouri has the advantage, averaging 5 points better than opponents, while the Crimson Tide has been 3.3 points worse on average.

At home, the Tide is 24.5 points better than the opposition, while the Tigers have been just 5.5 points better than their opponents when playing on the road.

Missouri has an edge in third down and red zone production over the last three games, converting 40.48 percent of the former and 87.5 percent of the latter in that span.

Over that time, Alabama was good for 34.38 percent on third down and 83.3 percent in the red zone.

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 17 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -900 and for Missouri at +550 to win outright.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Crimson Tide over the Tigers in this big SEC matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game in 82.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Missouri as the expected winner in the remaining 17.7 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 13.9 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Alabama vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins?

Missouri has played some inspired defense at times this season, especially against the run, but its tacklers have not yet lined up against a rotation with the kind of speed and variety that Alabama has.

But it’s up to the Crimson Tide to seriously boost a rushing offense that has struggled over the last few games and to improve with turnovers, including 10 over its first 6 games and 2 in each of its last 3 games.

Missouri’s offensive production could tank without Cook and Noel in the rotation, although the unit didn’t exactly light up opponents with them on the field.

This is a team that had to mount a comeback at home to beat Auburn and Vanderbilt and was pounded into submission on the road against Texas A&M, and, despite its own struggled, the Crimson Tide is still stacked with speed and power an order of magnitude greater than those teams.

Alabama could still struggle on the ground even against Tigers backup rusher Marcus Carroll, who leads the team in rushing touchdowns, but has the skill players who can get behind Mizzou’s tacklers.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 36-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch Missouri vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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