Alabama vs. Missouri score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Missouri in this Week 9 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers Score Prediction / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

A pair of former top-10 teams meet in Tuscaloosa this weekend as No. 15 Alabama plays host to No. 21 Missouri in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama slid to 2-2 in SEC play in Kalen DeBoer’s debut season as head coach following road losses against Vanderbilt and most recently Tennessee, and has no margin for error going forward in a competitive College Football Playoff race.

Mizzou is 2-1 in conference games, and that one loss was by 31 on the road against Texas A&M, so the team needs to make a statement on the road that it belongs in the postseason conversation.

What do the analytics suggest as the Crimson Tide and Tigers meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Missouri compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Alabama vs. Missouri score prediction

So far, the models are giving an important edge to the Crimson Tide over the Tigers in this game.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Missouri by a projected score of 32 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 8.6 points in the win.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a 70 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Alabama vs. Missouri picks, odds

Alabama is a 17.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -1100 and for Missouri at +680 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Missouri +17.5
• Alabama to win -1100
• Bet over 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a slight majority of bettors who are taking the Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Missouri is getting 51 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset or to keep the final score within the generous line.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Alabama will beat Missouri and cover the spread in the process.

Alabama vs. Missouri splits

Alabama is 24.5 points better than its opponents at home so far this season.

And while the Crimson Tide is 16.9 points better than opponents overall in 2024, that number has cratered over the last 3 games, as the team is 3.3 points worse than opponents in that time.

Missouri has been 5.5 points better than opponents when playing on the road, although that average is skewed by a bad loss at Texas A&M and aided by a dominant victory at UMass.

Over the last 3 games, the Tigers have been 5 points better on average than their opponents.

Alabama vs. Missouri future predictions

Alabama is fourth among SEC teams with a 45.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Crimson Tide a win total prediction of 9.2 games this season.

Missouri will win 8.7 games in 2024, according to the index’s calculations for the team.

And it has a 15.3 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, ranking eighth in the SEC.

How to watch Missouri vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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