Alabama vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

The latest prediction for Alabama vs. Oklahoma in this SEC clash from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma football prediction 2024 / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

A new-look SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 7 Alabama hits the road against Oklahoma. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Alabama is the No. 9 seed in the latest College Football Playoff bracket but at 4-2 in SEC play there isn’t much, if any, margin for error as selection day draws closer.

Oklahoma has been out of it for a while, sitting at 1-5 in conference, losing five of the last seven ever since a disastrous SEC debut against the Vols and ranking 83rd nationally in scoring.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions

As expected, the models are siding heavily with the Crimson Tide over the Sooners this week.

Alabama is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 81.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Oklahoma as the presumptive winner in the remaining 18.4 percent of sims for the game.

In total, the Crimson Tide comes out ahead in 16,320 of the index’s calculations for the matchup, while the Sooners edged out Bama in the other 3,680 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 13.3 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the spread.

That’s because Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -610 and for Oklahoma at +440 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A strong majority of bettors expect the Crimson Tide to dominate the Sooners on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 74 percent of bets to win the game by at least two touchdowns and cover the spread.

The other 26 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will either win outright in an upset or keep the game within two touchdowns in a loss.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma future projections

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 73.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Crimson Tide will win 10.1 games this season.

Oklahoma has two games to become bowl eligible, this week against Alabama and in the finale at LSU, and the FPI models don’t foresee the team taking advantage of those chances.

OU is projected to win 5.5 games in ‘24 and has a 47 percent chance to get to a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

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How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Norman, Okla.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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