Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Oklahoma by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction 2024 / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

A notable late-season SEC matchup kicks off as No. 7 Alabama visits Oklahoma. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama sits at 8-2 and currently the projected No. 9 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket as selection draws closer but can’t afford any more mistakes going forward.

Oklahoma slid to 1-5 in SEC play, losing four of the last five games, and ranking just 94th nationally in scoring and have this game and the finale against LSU to become bowl eligible.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Crimson Tide and Sooners square off in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Oklahoma compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Crimson Tide over the Sooners, and by a big margin.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 34 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a strong 84 percent chance of victory against the Sooners.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds, how to pick the game

Alabama is a 13.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -550 and for Oklahoma at +400 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Alabama -13.5
• Crimson Tide to win -550
• Bet over 46.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors who believe the Crimson Tide will dominate the Sooners, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Alabama is getting 74 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.

The other 26 percent of wagers project Oklahoma will either win outright in an upset, or keep the game under two touchdowns in a loss.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma splits

Alabama comes into the game ranked No. 8 nationally in scoring margin, averaging 20.1 points better than its opponents when adding up the points in wins and losses this season.

Oklahoma has fared 1.4 points worse than its competition in 2024, ranking 80th in FBS.

Those averages have changed over the last three games.

Alabama has averaged out 18.7 points better than its opponents in that time, while Oklahoma has been 15 points worse than the competition over that span.

And those margins move significantly when considering the venue.

Alabama has been 12.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road on average, whereas Oklahoma has been 6.2 points better than the competition when at home.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also side with the Tide over the Sooners.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is its big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 81.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Oklahoma as the presumptive winner in the remaining 18.4 percent of sims for the game.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 13.3 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Norman, Okla.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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