Alabama vs. South Carolina football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Alabama vs. South Carolina by the football model that picks winners.

Alabama vs. South Carolina football prediction / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

SEC football is back this weekend in a battle of schools coming off a loss, as No. 7 Alabama returns home against South Carolina in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game by the football model that picks winners.

Alabama is coming off a shocking loss at Vanderbilt last week that lost the team its No. 1 ranking, but the Crimson Tide is still in the top 10 of the polls looking to avoid falling under .500 in SEC play.

South Carolina is 1-2 in conference games with losses to LSU and Ole Miss and needs to dramatically improve its passing production, ranking 110th nationally in that category.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Crimson Tide against the Gamecocks.

Alabama is projected to win outright in the overwhelming 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the other 9.1 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 21 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Alabama is a 21.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -1000 and for South Carolina at +1800 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors have confidence in Alabama to handle South Carolina, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bets -- 67 percent -- predict the Crimson Tide will defeat the Gamecocks and cover the 21.5 point spread in the process.

The other 33 percent of wagers forecast that South Carolina will either beat Alabama in an upset or, more likely, keep the game within 3 touchdowns.

The implied score for the game suggests a comfortable win for the Crimson Tide.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Alabama will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 36 to 15 in the game.

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 70.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to the model’s latest forecast.

That model gives South Carolina a win total projection of 5.9 games and a 61.7 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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How to watch South Carolina vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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