Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. South Carolina in this Week 7 college football game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

SEC football rivals face off this weekend each coming off a loss and hoping to gain important ground in the conference race, as No. 7 Alabama welcomes South Carolina in college football’s Week 7 game on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction from an expert football that picks winners.

Alabama dropped a stunning 40-35 decision against unranked Vanderbilt last week, losing its No. 1 ranking and taking a decisive step backwards in the race for the expanded College Football Playoff.

South Carolina fell to 1-2 in SEC play after not scoring a touchdown in a loss to Ole Miss on its home ground, but is playing some solid defense up front that could test the Crimson Tide at the line of scrimmage.

What do the experts think of this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and South Carolina compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Crimson Tide over the Gamecocks in this one.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 37 to 18 and will win the game by an expected 19.2 point margin.

The model gives the Tide a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Alabama vs. South Carolina odds

Alabama is a 21 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -1800 and for South Carolina at +1000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• South Carolina +21
• Alabama to win -1800
• Bet over 50.5 points

So far, a plurality of bets are going with the Crimson Tide to handle the Gamecocks, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bettors -- 66 percent -- are predicting that Alabama will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 34 percent of wagers suggest that South Carolina will either win in an upset, or, more likely, keep the game within 3 touchdowns.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also give the Crimson Tide a strong chance of victory in the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win outright in the overwhelming 91 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 9 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 21 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 70.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives South Carolina a win total projection of 5.9 games and a 62.4 percent chance to make a bowl game this season.

How to watch South Carolina vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

More ... Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins, and why?

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks