Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Alabama and South Carolina meet in this Week 7 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction / Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

SEC football returns to Tuscaloosa this weekend as No. 7 Alabama is back home against conference rival South Carolina in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for on the field, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama lost its No. 1 ranking last week after a historic loss at unranked Vanderbilt that has put head coach Kalen DeBoer under some very sharp criticism early in his tenure, and will give the selection committee something to consider when formulating its final 12-team playoff seeds.

South Carolina is 1-2 in conference games after a 27-3 loss to Ole Miss last weekend in which the offense posted under 5 yards per pass and suffered 2 turnovers, and now heads into the second of four straight SEC games against ranked opponents.

What can we expect from the matchup this weekend between the Crimson Tide and the Gamecocks?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and South Carolina meet in this SEC clash, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: What to watch

1. Third down. Alabama has struggled to stop opponents in scoring position, but has played well on the money down, ranking 9th in FBS in giving up just 23 conversions on 82 attempts (28 percent). Conversely, the Gamecocks rank just 122nd nationally, converting 21 of 70 chances for a 30 percent success rate.

Carolina plays a stout pass rush up front, but if their offense can’t stay on the field and is limited to short, unproductive drives, that forces the defense back onto the field quickly, those tacklers will be worn down over time having to face longer possessions against Alabama’s elite skill threats.

2. At the line. South Carolina is a credible pass rushing threat up front, ranking 14th in FBS with 15 sacks and are 24th in the country with 35 tackles for loss, thanks in large part due to the line’s ability to disguise its pressures, generate speed off the edges, and support its line play on the interior with some aggressive, downhill linebacker play.

Alabama has allowed 8 sacks in its 5 games this season, but 4 of those have come in its last 3 outings, and the line has improved from last season, where it was 129th among 133 FBS teams after allowing 49 sacks.

3. On the other side ... South Carolina cannot stop opposing rushers from getting in its business. It ranks dead last among 134 FBS schools by allowing over 9 tackles for loss per game, surrendering 10 to Ole Miss last week, a major cause of the offense’s inability to generate longer drives, and Alabama’s front seven should face little resistance when pushing the Gamecocks up front.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Crimson Tide against the Gamecocks this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 91 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves South Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 9 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 21 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 21 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Alabama at -1800 and for South Carolina at +1000 to win outright.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: Who wins?

There’s a lot to like about the Gamecocks’ edge rushing capacity and their two mobile quarterbacks, LaNorris Sellers and Robby Ashford, who can extend drives with some unscripted runs that keep the Tide’s defense on the backfoot more often than it would like.

But Carolina’s other weaknesses run into Alabama’s strengths and should cancel out those relative advantages as the game wears on.

Expect the Crimson Tide to get aggressive from the start in an effort to regroup from the Vandy loss, and they have the skill players to expose the Gamecocks’ vulnerable points all over the field.

Alabama has the better protection, the more efficient dual-threat quarterback, and the receivers who can get behind Carolina’s susceptible secondary with ease. 

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Alabama vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert model

How to watch South Carolina vs. Alabama

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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