Alabama vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Alabama vs. Tennessee by the football model that picks winners.

Alabama vs. Tennessee football prediction / Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

One of the SEC’s great football rivalries returns to Rocky Top this weekend as No. 11 Tennessee welcomes No. 7 Alabama in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from the football model that picks winners.

Alabama checks in at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play after needing some late-game heroics to ward off South Carolina in a narrow, 2-point victory at home last weekend.

Tennessee needed overtime to get past Florida last week and is playing some of the nation’s most dominant defense and boasts the 7th-ranked rushing attack in the country.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions

So far, the models project a very close game, with the road team getting a slight nod.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in the majority 53.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tennessee as the expected winner in the remaining 46.4 percent of sims.

In total, Alabama comes out ahead in 10,720 of the index’s simulations, while Tennessee edged out the Tide in the other 9,280 projections of the game.

The index predicts a very close result when considering the scoring margin.

Alabama is projected to be just 1.2 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the spread.

That’s because Alabama is a 3 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -150 and for Tennessee at +130 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors are giving the Vols more of a chance against the Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 58 percent of bets to either keep the game within the narrow line or to beat Alabama outright at home in an upset.

The other 42 percent of wagers expect the Crimson Tide will win the game and cover the spread.

Alabama is second among SEC teams with a 69.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Tennessee a win total prediction of 9.4 games and a 45.2 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, ranking fourth in the SEC.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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