Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Alabama and Tennessee meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction / Angelina Alcantar/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Third Saturday in October brings us one of college football’s best Southern rivalries from one of the nation’s great venues, as No. 11 Tennessee hosts No. 7 Alabama this weekend. Here’s what you should watch as the Crimson Tide and Volunteers face off, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee started slow and pulled out enough offense to finally get past rival Florida over the weekend, moving to 5-1 overall and with a 2-1 mark in SEC play that includes a stunning loss at unranked Arkansas two weeks ago.

Alabama is coming off a very close decision at home against South Carolina, trailing late in that game and nearly giving it away after a special teams blunder that put the Gamecocks in scoring position, but the Crimson Tide came up with a takeaway to avoid another big upset.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide and Volunteers meet in this classic SEC rivalry?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Alabama and Tennessee meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch

Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama is No. 10 nationally in scoring offense, averaging 41.7 points per game with 35 touchdowns and just 1 field goal, scoring 250 total points.

Bama is 51st in FBS in rushing output, averaging just over 179 yards per game on the ground, scoring 23 touchdowns, the third most in college football, and posting a solid 5.02 yard per carry average.

Alabama is running into a Tennessee rush defense that is 5th nationally, allowing just under 80 yards per game on the ground, and surrendering just 2.24 yards per carry and only 3 touchdowns.

On third down offense, the Crimson Tide is 29th in the country, converting on 32 of 69 opportunities for a 46.38 percent success rate.

Tennessee is a dominant No. 2 in FBS in third down defense, allowing just 20 conversions against 83 attempts for a mere 24.1 percent success rate.

Alabama is good for 20 scores on 24 red zone opportunities (83.3%) and nearly 80 percent of those scores (19) have gone for touchdowns.

Tennessee is 6th in FBS in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 12 of 19 chances, but only 6 of those scores (32%) are touchdowns.

Jalen Milroe is completing almost 73 percent of his pass attempts while covering 1,483 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while being sacked 11 times.

Milroe, a gifted dual threat, is second on the team with 319 rushing yards on 77 carries, averaging 4.1 yards per touch and scoring a remarkable 11 touchdowns, leading the Tide in that category.

Jam Miller is Alabama’s principle rushing threat in terms of yardage (360) and is averaging 7.1 yards per carry while scoring 5 of Alabama’s 23 rushing touchdowns.

Justice Haynes has 3 touchdowns and is averaging 6.4 yards per rush with 249 total yards.

Wide receiver Ryan Williams has 23 catches for 576 yards and is averaging 25 yards per catch while accounting for 6 of Alabama’s 12 receiving touchdowns.

Germie Bernard is the Tide’s second-most productive receiving outlet, with 309 yards off 20 grabs and 2 touchdown catches.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee is No. 9 in the country in scoring offense, averaging 42.2 points per game on average while scoring 31 touchdowns and 11 field goals.

Big Orange is 10th nationally with 20 rushing touchdowns and averages 5.35 yards per carry while ranking 7th in FBS with 246 rushing yards per game.

Alabama is 54th nationally in rush defense, allowing 129 yards per game, while surrendering 3.33 yards per run on average and just 6 touchdowns on the ground.

The Vols are 40th in FBS in third down offense, moving the chains on 42 of 94 chances for a 44.68 percent conversion rate.

Alabama is 22nd in third down defense, allowing 36 conversions on 96 tries for 31.25 percent success.

Tennessee is good for 39th nationally in the red zone, scoring on 27 of 30 chances (90%) with 19 of those scores going for touchdowns (63%).

Alabama has allowed opponents to score 15 times in 18 red zone chances (83%) with just over 55 percent of those points being touchdowns (10).

Nico Iamaleava has been held under 200 yards passing in each of the Vols’ last four games, but has thrown just 1 interception in that time.

Iamaleava is 81st nationally with a 51.4 quarterback rating while completing 66 percent of his pass attempts for 1,219 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 picks.

Dont’e Thornton, Jr. has just 9 catches but leads the team with 295 yards receiving thanks to a 32.8 yard per reception average, and has scored 3 of UT’s 9 receiving touchdowns.

Squirrel White leads Tennessee with 20 receptions but is yet to score, and tight end Miles Kitselman has 2 touchdowns off 6 catches.

Dylan Sampson leads the nation’s No. 7 ranked rushing attack, amassing 699 yards while averaging 5.9 yards per carry and scoring 15 of the Volunteers’ 20 rushing touchdowns.

DeSean Bishop is posting 6.9 yards per rush and has scored 3 times off 48 carries.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models also predict the Crimson Tide will take down the Volunteers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in a majority 53.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tennessee as the expected winner in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be just 1.2 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 3.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -152 and for Tennessee at +126 to win outright.

A majority of bettors expect the Volunteers to handle the Crimson Tide, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 57 percent of bets to win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the score under the narrow 3.5 point line.

The other 43 percent of wagers project Alabama will win the game and cover the spread.

Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

There are some legitimate concerns about the stability of Tennessee’s vertical game after Nico Iamaleava’s production fell off, not throwing a touchdown the last two games and not having multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 2.

That lack of consistency has cut into the Vols’ offensive potential, and will be a vulnerability against a decent Alabama front seven, as Iamaleava is posting under 5 yards per pass under pressure.

Alabama will look to confuse Iamaleava with a variety of looks up front and bring pressure with four rushers and put most of its emphasis on stopping the run.

In the meantime, Dylan Sampson and a superb Tennessee rushing output has picked up some of the slack, and it’s that phase of the offense that has to be on point, burning the clock and keeping the Tide’s offense off the field.

Tennessee’s strength remains its dominant front seven rotation, the engine behind the nation’s 4th ranked scoring defense and the No. 2 unit nationally in terms of total production.

But it hasn’t faced a big-play offense of Alabama’s caliber yet, and will have its moments where Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe sneaks out of the pocket to extend a play or take off himself downfield.

And the Vols’ secondary is full of young corners who have shown they can leave throwing lanes open, as they did against Florida, and now are going against superior Crimson Tide receivers.

Rocky Top itself could be the difference and it might be enough to bet on the Vols to cover, even a line this close.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Alabama wins 27-24
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Alabama vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert model

How to watch Alabama vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks