Alabama vs. USF score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Alabama Crimson Tide welcome the USF Bulls in this Week 2 college football game.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. USF Bulls Prediction / Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Kalen DeBoer passed his first test with flying colors as head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide, which kicks off this weekend against the USF Bulls in college football's Week 2 game on Saturday.

Bama flattened Western Kentucky in a 63-0 rout that saw quarterback Jalen Milroe score five all-purpose touchdowns, 3 passing and 2 rushing, while the ground game accounted for 334 total yards and averaged 7.1 yards and six touchdowns from its rotation of backs.

USF may revive some tense memories from Alabama fans: last season, the Bulls played a very close game in their stadium that was tied 3-3 in the first half and only saw the Tide score a touchdown late in the third quarter before adding another with 33 seconds left in regulation.

South Florida ran for 231 yards on 48 carries while averaging 5 yards per carry and scoring 5 touchdowns on the ground in a 48-3 win over Bethune-Cookman in the season opener last week.

What can we expect in the matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and USF compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Alabama vs. USF prediction

The simulations strongly favor the Crimson Tide to take care of things at home this week.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat USF by a projected score of 47 to 14 and to win the game by an expected 33.3 points.

The model gives the Tide a near-perfect 98 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Alabama is a 30.5 point favorite against South Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 64.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -8000 and for USF at +2400.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Alabama -30.5
• Bama to win -8000
• Bet under 64.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also expect Alabama to easily win the game and move to 2-0.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is expected to win the game in the overwhelming 97.7 percent of the computer's simulations, while USF comes out the projected winner in the remaining 2.3 percent of sims.

The index expects Alabama to be 30.9 points better than USF on the same field in both teams' current composition, just enough to cover this line.

Alabama is projected to win 10.2 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, which give the Crimson Tide a strong 77.2 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

USF will win 6.3 games this season on the index, which projects the Bulls have a 5.9 percent chance to win the American Athletic Conference championship.

Alabama vs. USF game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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