Alabama vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Wisconsin in this Week 3 college football game.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers Prediction / William McLelland-Imagn Images

This weekend brings us a notable SEC vs. Big Ten matchup from one of college football's most raucous home field advantages as Wisconsin welcomes No. 4 Alabama in head coach Kalen DeBoer's first big road test at the helm of the Crimson Tide on Saturday.

Last week, Alabama escaped in another close battle with USF, the 42-16 scoreline of which belies how tight the game was, with the Tide ahead by just 1 point as late as the third quarter and losing the turnover battle 3-0, before piling on four fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away late.

Wisconsin is still trying to open up this offense with transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke at the helm, but through two games sits at 85th nationally in scoring offense and 89th in passing production despite playing two over-matched opponents to start out.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Wisconsin compare in this Week 3 college football clash.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Crimson Tide to come away with a big win against its Big Ten opponent this week.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 33 to 15 and to win the game by an expected 17.5 points.

The model gives the Tide a strong 86 percent chance of outright victory in the matchup.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Alabama is a 16.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 49.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -820 and for Wisconsin at +550.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Alabama -16.5
• Bama to win -820
• Bet under 49.5 points

Computer predictions

Other analytical models also project the Crimson Tide to win the game at Camp Randall this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama came out as the projected outright winner in an overwhelming 92 percent of the computer's simulations for the game, while Wisconsin wins out in the remaining 8 percent of sims.

The index projects that Alabama will by 23 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, enough to cover the spread.

Alabama is third among SEC teams with a 79.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the index, and is projected to win 10.3 games this season.

Wisconsin will win 5.3 games in head coach Luke Fickell's second full season, and sits fourth-worst in the Big Ten with a 0.8 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, according to the model.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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