Arizona State vs. Iowa State prediction for Big 12 Championship Game: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Arizona State vs. Iowa State in the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game from a football model that simulates games.

Arizona State vs. Iowa State 2024 Big 12 Championship Game prediction / William Purnell-Imagn Images

Iowa State and Arizona State face off in the Big 12 Championship Game this weekend with a place in the College Football Playoff on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Arizona State comes into the matchup on a five-game win streak and the highest ranked team in the Big 12, and a win here would secure a place in the College Football Playoff.

Standing in the Sun Devils’ way is Iowa State, with a golden opportunity to shake up the playoff rankings and bracket projection on a three-game win streak.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Arizona State vs. Iowa State prediction

Something of a surprise from the power index calculations, which currently favor the Cyclones over the Sun Devils in this matchup.

Iowa State is a narrow favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 54.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the contest.

That leaves Arizona State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Cyclones came out on top in 10,980 of the index’s calculations, while the Sun Devils edged out Iowa State in the other 9,020 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Expect a very close one.

Iowa State is projected to be just 1.8 points better than Arizona State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to constitute an upset.

That’s because Arizona State is a 2.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the matchup (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -128 and for Iowa State at +106 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors still have confidence in the Sun Devils over the Cyclones, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arizona State is getting 69 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 31 percent of wagers project Iowa State will either win outright in an upset, or keep the game under a field goal in a loss.

Arizona State vs. Iowa State future projections

Iowa State is seventh among 134 FBS teams with a 55 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

The index forecasts that the Cyclones will win 10.6 games this season, implying that the model projects they won’t win again after this game in 2024.

That model gives Arizona State a 45 percent shot to make the 12-team field.

And it expects the Sun Devils will win 10.5 games, suggesting the model would favor the team in their eventual bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch the Big 12 Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 11 a.m. CT | 10 a.m. MT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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