Arizona vs. Kansas State picks, predictions, 2024 college football projections for Week 3

Expert picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Kansas State in this Week 3 college football game.

Arizona vs. Kansas State picks, predictions / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Sure, there will be two Big 12 teams on the same field, but a scheduling technicality means this won't be a Big 12 game that has an effect on the conference standings, as No. 20 Arizona meets No. 14 Kansas State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Both teams are coming off close games a week ago: Arizona's offense struggled against Northern Arizona, while Kansas State played some timely defense to avoid an upset at Tulane.

Arizona still projects to field one of college football's more dynamic passing attacks behind quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, on whom the Wildcats' league title hopes depend.

Kansas State is 20th nationally with 249 rushing yards per game but just 106th in the country when it comes to throwing the ball, posting just over 173 yards in the air on average.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Arizona vs. Kansas State picks, predictions

The simulations currently favor the home team to stay undefeated this week.

Kansas State is projected to win the game in 72.8 percent of the computer's calculations.

Conversely, Arizona comes out the expected winner in 27.2 percent of sims.

Kansas State is a 7.5 point favorite against Arizona, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 58.5 points for the game.

Kansas State is 9.5 points better than Arizona on the same field, according to the computer's most recent calculations, enough to cover the spread.

Arizona will win 7 games this season and has a 5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the model's forecasts.

The index projects Kansas State will win 9.1 games and is second among Big 12 teams with a 27.6 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.

Arizona vs. Kansas State game time, schedule

When: Fri., Sept. 13
Time: 7 p.m. CT, 6 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (54)
2. Texas (4)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Missouri
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Oregon
10. Miami
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Oklahoma State
14. Kansas State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Michigan
18. Notre Dame
19. Louisville
20. Arizona
21. Iowa State
22. Clemson
23. Nebraska
24. Boston College
25. Northern Illinois

Details ... Week 3 AP top 25 rankings

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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