Arizona vs. Kansas State Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

What to expect as the Arizona Wildcats and Kansas State Wildcats meet in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Arizona vs. Kansas State Prediction / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Friday Night Football goes under the lights today as the Week 3 college football schedule gets an early kickoff between a pair of Big 12 title contenders as No. 20 Arizona goes on the road to square off against No. 14 Kansas State in college football's Week 3 action on Friday.

This battle of Wildcats may be between two Big 12 teams, but don't call it a conference game. It was scheduled before the recent conference realignment, so technically this one goes in the books as a non-conference matchup. Still, it's vitally important for both teams.

Arizona's vaunted passing attack was stuck in neutral last week against Northern Arizona, as Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan connected on just 2 passes for 11 yards combined and trailed at halftime before Fifita led a TD drive in the third and Kedrick Reescano ran for a 56-yard touchdown.

Kansas State was menaced on the road by Tulane last weekend, as the Green Wave built a 10-point halftime lead and was still up by 7 in the fourth before the Wildcats added two scores late, when Dylan Edwards ran from 13 yards out and Jack Fabris returned a fumble 60 yards for a score.

What can we expect from this matchup? Here's what you should be watching for as Arizona and Kansas State meet in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Arizona vs. Kansas State prediction, preview

1. Battle on the ground. Kansas State has found success running the ball behind DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry through two games, and boast a mobile quarterback in Avery Johnson who can add yards to the total when needed.

Arizona defended against the run well enough last week, holding the Lumberjacks to just 2.9 yards per run and 89 total yards on 31 carries, but the unit struggled against New Mexico, allowing 210 yards on the ground and 2 scores, enough to keep the game within 3 points in the first half.

2. Arizona's 1-2 punch. Any hope that Arizona has to contend for the Big 12 title, and they're legitimate, rests on the combination of quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Though they struggled last week, this is still one of the most dynamic duos in college football.

Especially against a Kansas State passing defense that appears to be vulnerable against faster opposition, as Tulane was able to pile up 342 yards in the air against the unit in addition to 2 touchdown passes.

3. At the line. Kansas State presents a challenge for Arizona's pass protection with one of the more formidable pass rushing units in the Big 12 right now. At key moments against Tulane when K-State needed to rattle the quarterback, it was able to, and it has the bodies to create a lot of pressure that could throw Fifita out of his rhythm.

And that Arizona front seven that was susceptible against the run in the season opener will have its own struggles against a Kansas State protection alignment that looks very strong, giving young quarterback Avery Johnson time to find his targets and open big holes for a stout backfield.

Arizona vs. Kansas State game odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Kansas State -7.5 (-104)
Arizona: +7.5 (-118)

K-State ML: -275
Arizona ML: +220

Over 60.5 points: -115
Under 60.5 points: 105

Arizona vs. Kansas State prediction

Fifita and McMillan will find some holes to punch through this Kansas State secondary often enough to keep the game close most of the night, but the Arizona defense may finally have trouble containing the Kansas State ground game.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Kansas State wins 34-30
• Doesn't cover the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Arizona vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

Arizona vs. Kansas State game time, schedule

When: Fri., Sept. 13
Time: 7 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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