Arkansas vs. Auburn score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Arkansas vs. Auburn in this Week 4 college football game.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Auburn Tigers Prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Two former West Division rivals square off in this SEC football opener as Arkansas hits the road against Auburn in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Arkansas is 8 points from being undefeated after losing a close decision on the road against Oklahoma State two weeks ago, but recovered by beating UAB by 10 points at home, ranking No. 11 nationally in both rushing and passing production, and 12th in FBS in scoring offense.

Auburn made a switch at quarterback after losing at home to Cal, swapping Payton Thorne for Hank Brown, who helped revive the offense by throwing 4 touchdown passes to beat New Mexico.

What can we make of this weekend's matchup?

Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Auburn and Arkansas compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Arkansas vs. Auburn score prediction

So far, the simulations are siding with the home team in this SEC football opener.

SP+ predicts that Auburn will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32 to 25 and to win the game by an expected 7.1 points.

The model gives Auburn a 67 percent chance of outright victory over Arkansas.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Auburn is a 3 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 56.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Auburn at -155 and for Arkansas at +135 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Auburn -3
• Auburn to win -155
• Bet over 56.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Tigers will take care of the Hogs at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Auburn is projected to win the game in 58.6 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves Arkansas the expected winner in the remaining 41.4 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Auburn will be just 0.8 points better than Arkansas on the same field.

That wouldn't be enough for Auburn to cover the 3 point spread.

Auburn is 10th among SEC teams with a 2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is projected to win 6.2 games this season, according to the FPI's metrics.

That model expects Arkansas to win 5.6 games and gives the Hogs a 1.7 percent shot at the playoff.

Auburn vs. Arkansas schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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