Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Arkansas Razorbacks meet the Oklahoma State Cowboys in this SEC vs. Big 12 matchup on the Week 2 college football schedule.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

This weekend brings us an interesting SEC vs. Big 12 matchup as the No. 16 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys welcome the Arkansas Razorbacks in college football's Week 2 action on Saturday.

Arkansas pounded Pine Bluff in a 70-0 decision in the opener, as quarterback Taylen Green ran for 2 touchdowns and threw for 2 more, and tailback Ja'Quinden Jackson posted over 100 yards rushing with another pair of scores and the Hogs backfield running for 8 total touchdowns.

College football's reigning rushing champ Ollie Gordon ran for 3 touchdowns and quarterback Alan Bowman threw 2 more as the Cowboys defeated South Dakota State in a closer 44-20 result.

Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman is coming off a 4-win effort last season and remains on the proverbial hot seat, and winning games like this are crucial to his standing with the program.

Oklahoma State is on a short list of teams that will compete for the newly-expanded Big 12 title and consequently for the College Football Playoff.

What can we expect from the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get an early preview as Arkansas and Oklahoma State meet on Saturday.

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State prediction

The simulations favor the Cowboys to handle their SEC challengers at home this week.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma State will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 34 to 27 and to win the game by a projected 7.4 points.

The model gives the Cowboys a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the Razorbacks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Oklahoma State is a 7.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 62.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at -310 and for Arkansas at +245.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Arkansas +7.5
• Cowboys to win -310
• Bet under 62.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also expect the Cowboys to win the game at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The model expects that Oklahoma State will win the game in 56 percent of its simulations, compared to Arkansas coming out the projected winner in the remaining 44 percent of sims.

But the computers expect a very narrow win for the Cowboys, who are projected to be just 0.2 points better than the Razorbacks on the same field, not enough to cover the line.

Arkansas is projected to win 6 games this season by the computer's calculations, with a 59.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible and with a 4.8 percent chance at the playoff.

Oklahoma State will win 7.9 games this fall, according to the index, which projects it has a 9.8 percent chance to win the conference title, sixth among Big 12 teams.

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks