Arkansas vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Texas A&M vs. Arkansas in this Week 5 college football game.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M score prediction / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

A pair of SEC rivals square off in The Southwest Classic this weekend both hoping to avoid their first conference loss as No. 24 Texas A&M and Arkansas meet in college football’s Week 5 action.

Texas A&M has owned the series since joining the SEC back in 2012, beating the Razorbacks in 11 of the 12 meetings, although 6 of the last 9 Arkansas losses have been in one-score games.

In a season that started with Sam Pittman on the hot seat, the Hogs are just 8 points away from being perfect after dropping a game on the road against ranked Oklahoma State, while the Aggies lost by 10 in the opener to Notre Dame, but have won 3 straight since then.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Arkansas and Texas A&M compare coming into this Week 5 SEC football rivalry game.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas score prediction

The simulations project yet another win for the Aggies against the Razorbacks at Jerry World.

And another one-score game, too.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 30 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 4.1 points.

The model gives the Aggies a 60 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Texas A&M is a 4.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 51.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -184 and for Arkansas at +152 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Arkansas +4.5
• Texas A&M to win -184
• Bet over 51.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Aggies will take down the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas A&M is projected to win the game in the majority 56.2 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 43.8 percent of sims.

Texas A&M is projected to be 2.2 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

The Aggies will win 7.6 games this season and have a 9.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts that Arkansas will win 6.5 games and has a 77.8 percent chance at becoming bowl eligible.

How to watch Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

More ... Arkansas vs. Texas A&M prediction: What the analytics say

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