Arkansas vs. Texas Tech score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Arkansas vs. Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech football score prediction 2024 / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Arkansas and Texas Tech meet in the 2024 edition of the Liberty Bowl game. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Arkansas will be a little shorthanded in the game after losing a pile of players to the football transfer portal, and four other key players are out to prepare for the NFL Draft, including lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson, who scored 15 touchdowns in the SEC’s second-best offense.

Texas Tech will be without wideout Josh Kelly, who had over 1,000 yards receiving this year, as he gets ready for the draft, but should have rusher Tahj Boyd, who ran for 1,505 yards and 17 touchdowns this season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Razorbacks and Red Raiders meet?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Arkansas and Texas Tech compare in college football’s Liberty Bowl game.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech score prediction

As it often does, the model is taking the side of the SEC team over its Big 12 challenger, but by a closer margin than other bowl games.

SP+ predicts that Arkansas will defeat Texas Tech by a projected score of 32 to 26 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.8 points.

The model gives the Razorbacks a 64 percent chance of outright victory over the Red Raiders.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

-

Liberty Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Texas Tech is a 1.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas Tech at -114 and Arkansas for -105 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Arkansas +1.5
• Hogs to win -105
• Bet over 51.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are taking the Red Raiders over the Razorbacks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas Tech is getting 56 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Arkansas will either win outright in an upset or keep the game to a single point in a loss.

-

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Razorbacks over the Red Raiders.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Arkansas is the narrow favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in 56.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 43.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arkansas is projected to be 2.1 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

-

How to watch the 2024 Liberty Bowl Game

When: Fri., Dec. 27
Where: Memphis, Tenn.

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks