Army vs. Air Force football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Army vs. Air Force in this Week 10 college football game.

Army vs. Air Force football prediction / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

Still undefeated through seven games, No. 21 Army returns from its idle week at home against Air Force in a Commander-in-Chief Trophy game. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Army is one of college football’s eight remaining undefeated teams and sits atop the AAC standings as a Group of Five playoff contender entering November football.

Air Force is on a slide this season, sitting at 1-6 overall and in the Mountain West basement, ranking second-worst nationally in passing and scoring production.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Army vs. Air Force predictions

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Black Knights over the Falcons.

Army is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 94.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Air Force as the presumptive winner in the remaining 5.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Black Knights came out ahead in 18,960 of the index’s simulations of the game, while the Falcons edged out Army in the other 1,040 predictions.

And the index predicts a dominant margin for the Knights on the scoreboard, too.

Army is projected to be 25.8 points better than Air Force on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Black Knights to cover the spread.

That’s because Army is a 22.5 point favorite against Air Force, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Army at -4000 and for Air Force at +1400 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a plurality of bettors expect the Black Knights to dominate the Falcons, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Army is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Air Force will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the margin under 23 points in a loss.

Army vs. Air Force future predictions

Army is first among AAC teams with a 22.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Black Knights a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

The index projects Air Force will win 2 games in ‘24, according to the most recent calculations.

FPI estimates the Falcons are 16 points worse than an average opponent on a neutral field, and has a 0 percent chance to play any postseason football.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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