Army vs. Air Force score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Army vs. Air Force in this Week 10 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Army vs. Air Force score prediction / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

The next leg in the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series kicks off on Saturday as undefeated playoff hopeful No. 21 Army faces off against Air Force. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Army is one of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams and sitting atop the AAC standings, emerging as a playoff contender as we move into critical November football.

Air Force is heading in the opposite direction, on a slide this season at 1-6 overall and winless in Mountain West play, ranking second-worst nationally in passing and scoring output.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Black Knights and Falcons meet in this battle between the service academies?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Army and Air Force compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Army vs. Air Force score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Black Knights over the Falcons.

SP+ predicts Army will defeat Air Force by a projected score of 41 to 10 and will win the game by an expected margin of 30.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Black Knights a near perfect 97 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Army vs. Air Force picks, odds

Army is a 21.5 point favorite against Air Force, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Army at -4000 and for Air Force at +1400 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Army -21.5
• Army to win -4000
• Bet over 42.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who are giving the Black Knights a decided edge against the Falcons, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Army is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread to stay undefeated.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Air Force will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the game under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

Army vs. Air Force splits

Army has been 26.8 points better than its competition overall this season on average, while Air Force has been 16.7 points worse than its opponents in 2024.

Over the last three games, Army’s average advantage has swelled to 31 points better than its opponents, while the Falcons’ margin of defeat has remained the same.

Army has played slightly closer at home, but still by big margins, averaging 24.7 points better than its opponents at West Point.

On the road this season, Air Force has averaged 18.3 points worse than the competition.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Black Knights over the Falcons in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Army is expected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 94.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Air Force as the presumptive winner in the remaining 5.2 percent of sims.

And the models foresee a comfortable margin of victory for the Black Knights, too.

Army is projected to be 25.8 points better than Air Force on the same field in the latest projected simulations of the game in the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Army vs. Air Force prediction: What the analytics say

Army vs. Air Force future predictions

Army is first among AAC teams with a 22.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Black Knights a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

The index projects Air Force will win 2 games in ‘24, according to the most recent calculations.

FPI estimates the Falcons are 16 points worse than an average opponent on a neutral field, and has a 0 percent chance to play any postseason football.

How to watch Air Force vs. Army

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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