Army vs. East Carolina score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Army vs. East Carolina in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Army vs. East Carolina score prediction / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

Back in the rankings after four years, No. 23 Army returns home in an AAC league battle against East Carolina in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Once again, the Black Knights are relying on a superior rushing attack, a unit that ranks No. 1 in the country with 370 yards per game as Bryson Daily is first among FBS quarterbacks with 738 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

East Carolina has lost 3 of its last 4 games after a 2-0 start and is 5-13 since the start of last season, ranking 82nd in FBS in scoring output with 26.5 points per game, and is 97th nationally in rushing production.

What do the analytics suggest for this AAC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Army and East Carolina compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Army vs. East Carolina score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Black Knights over the Pirates in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Army will defeat East Carolina by a projected score of 34 to 17 and to win the game by an expected margin of 17 points.

The model gives the Black Knights a strong 85 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Army vs. East Carolina picks, odds

Army is a 16 point favorite against East Carolina, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Army at -700 and for East Carolina at +500 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Army -16
• Army to win -700
• Bet under 51.5 points

The majority of bettors are taking the Black Knights to dominate the Pirates, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

More than 8 in 10 bets -- 81 percent -- forecast that Army will win the game in commanding fashion and cover the spread.

The other 19 percent of wagers expect that East Carolina will either win in an upset or keep the game within the generous line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models suggest the Black Knights will easily defeat the Pirates this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Army is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 87 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves East Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 13 percent of sims.

Army is projected to be 17.2 points better than East Carolina on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast, also enough to cover the spread.

Army is first among AAC teams with a 25.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives East Carolina a win total prediction of 5.6 games and a 53.3 percent shot to make a bowl game this season.

How to watch Army vs. East Carolina

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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