Army vs. Navy 2024 Game prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Army and Navy reunite in college football's greatest rivalry, with our updated prediction for the game.

Army vs. Navy 2024 Game Prediction / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

College football’s most prominent rivalry kicks off on Saturday as the 2024 Army vs. Navy Game gets underway for the 125th time. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with On SI offering our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan, Alabama vs. Auburn, and all the rest are great series in their own right, but this is the only college football rivalry where every player on the field is willing to give their life for everyone watching and in the stadium.

The sheer pageantry and tradition of the Army-Navy Game is unmatched in college football, or indeed any other American sport, and in recent years, it’s also one of the closest rivalry games: eight of the last 10 meetings have been decided by one possession.

What can we expect as the Black Knights and Midshipmen meet on the same field today?

Here’s what you should watch for as Army and Navy meet in this college football classic, with our updated prediction for the 2024 game.

Army vs. Navy 2024 Game prediction: What to watch for

1. On the ground. It’s no secret that Army’s offense runs through its backfield, ranking No. 1 nationally with over 300 yards per game, and quarterback Bryson Daily leading the way with 1,480 yards with his legs and 29 touchdowns, tied with Ashton Jeanty for the most in the NCAA.

Navy’s run defense has been a weakness this season, ranking 85th among 134 FBS teams against opposing backs, and surrendered more than 200 rushing yards in two of its three losses, and allowed 4.31 yards per carry all season with over 159 yards per game on average.

2. Third down. Army comes into the game ranking fourth nationally in third down success rate, converting over 50 percent of its opportunities, keyed by Daily’s ability to churn out short yard runs that help this offense control tempo and punish defenses.

Navy allows opponents to convert just over 40 percent of their third down chances, letting teams move the chains on 63 of 156 opportunities, ranking 82nd nationally in that category.

3. Navy can throw it. While the Midshipmen aren’t quite as prolific as Army at running the football, and thus doesn’t control the clock as well, they can throw the ball better with Blake Horvath working under center.

Horvath has proven able to hit the occasional deep play in the vertical game, leading the offense to over 200 passing yards in two appearances, an important dynamic that helps balance things out alongside Navy’s eighth-ranked rushing attack.

Army does allow nearly 65 percent completion from opposing passers, but is a respectable 34th in FBS defending the pass, allowing only 14 touchdowns while intercepting 17 passes.

Who is favored?

Army is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this historic matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 39.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Army at -220 and for Navy at +180 to win outright.

Army vs. Navy Game 2024 prediction: Who wins?

While it may be a cliche to say you can “throw the records out” in rivalry games like this, the fact is, you can. These teams switch into another mental and physical gear when they play each other.

Navy fell off the radar a little after getting plastered by Notre Dame in a loss that ended its perfect record, but it’s worth remembering this team can still pack a punch on the ground itself.

And when combined with the Midshipmens’ more-developed passing acumen than in years past, that could present more of a challenge for the Black Knights’ defense, opening some throwing lanes to exploit that move the chains and outmaneuver Army’s expert run stop.

A challenge that Navy’s defense doesn’t have to worry about, given Army’s limited passing threat.

But the Knights still have an outsized advantage when running the ball against a Navy run defense that has been a vulnerability against more gifted rushing opponents. And this is the nation’s best.

For those of a betting inclination: it’s worth noting that the total in this game has come in under the number every time out for the last decade. It will again.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Army wins 17-13
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Army vs. Navy score prediction by football model

How to watch the 2024 Army vs. Navy Game

When: Sat., Dec. 14
Where: Landover, Md.

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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