Army vs. Temple prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to what for as Army and Temple face off in this Week 5 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Army vs. Temple football prediction / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

College football’s Week 5 schedule gets an early start on Thursday night between the first and worst teams in the AAC standings, as Army hits the road against Temple under the lights.

Army’s debut in the American has gone well, starting out with consecutive conference victories against FAU and Rice, and look forward to a winnable schedule in the coming weeks.

Temple has won 6 games the last two seasons and started out 0-3 this year before rebounding in a solid 45-29 victory against Utah State a week ago.

What can we expect from this week’s matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Army and Temple face off in college football’s early Thursday night game.

Army vs. Temple prediction, preview

1. Ground and pound. Army will run the football, and it can. The team ranks 2nd nationally with 356 rushing yards per game and average 6.28 yards per carry from its backs, good for 12th in FBS. 

Black Knights quarterback Bryson Daily leads the group with 340 yards, followed by Noah Short with 266 yards, and Kanye Udoh with 169. The trio has 8 of Army’s 11 rushing touchdowns and together they average nearly 8 yards per touch.

2. Can Temple stop it? Army’s strength is running right into Temple’s weakness, as the Owls come into the game ranked 13th among AAC teams and 126th in the nation in rush defense, allowing almost 220 yards per game from opponents on the ground.

Temple averages out at 117th among 134 FBS teams by surrendering 5.33 yards per carry from opposing backs.

3. Throw it at Army. Evan Simon, Temple’s transfer quarterback who’s played the last 2 games after an injury to starter Forrest Brock, helped lead the team to a season-best 451 yards in its first win last week, throwing for 271 yards and 5 TDs against Utah State.

Simon’s arm and targets that include speedsters like Dante Wright and Ashton Allen, who together average almost 15 yards per catch, could find holes against a vulnerable Army secondary that gave up 256 air yards last week against Rice.

Army vs. Temple odds

Army is a 12.5 point favorite against Temple, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Army at -500 and for Temple at +380 to win outright.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor Army to win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Army is projected to win the game with 82.3 percent likelihood, while Temple comes out as the forecasted winner in 17.7 percent of the model’s simulations.

The index suggests that Army will be 15.9 points better than Temple on the same field.

Army vs. Temple prediction

Army’s game plan is simple enough: dominate on the ground behind your stable of backs, and burn the clock to keep the other team’s offense off the field.

And of course come away with points when you’re in scoring position. That’s something Army is great at, ranking 1st nationally with a 100 percent success rate inside the 20.

It’s also No. 1 in FBS in red zone defense, allowing under 38 percent of possessions to become points. Temple is 76th in that category, allowing teams to score 87 percent of the time.

Temple’s success on offense last week makes this a little more interesting, but the Black Knights have the bodies to move the chains and keep the Owls from building that momentum.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Army wins 27-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

How to watch Army vs. Temple

When: Thurs., Sept. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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